Duke ML 99% 43k vs Arizona – Don’t fall into following these huge money line consensus favorites. The Blue Devils are leading the tournament in margin of victory. You may look live bet here but if your headstrong on the Duke side then just lay the number where you get your bet at. Duke has been the one man show and if that show gets slowed then it happens in the tournament. 78 % of the bets on Duke laying that -9.5 points here. I would recommend waiting because Arizona isn’t going to be blown out from the tip off, they have the talent to beat Duke but those balls have to bounce their way. Duke has been a second half team like in the ACC Championship where they just take off at half time.

Bama 88% ML 17k 90% over 176 – Look for a high scoring matchup here Alabama made the run last year with the same unit of guys but this BYU bunch is no slouch and is capable of surprising some people but at -5.5 is where my pick is the Tide have been covering a lot, 70 % consensus on the Tide -5.5, play around and get a better number if you want but if this thing goes one way then its gone.

Arkansas 49 ML +205 – The most amazing thing about this spread is that Arkansas just played so well vs. St. Johns but the books are still giving all that respect to Texas Tech, who now I have laid my eyes on them in the madness and see they are playing really good. The Line Tech -5.5 and for me the pick is Arkansas as they played their game, their size is a defensive nightmare for opponents. I’ll take the points here with 54% consensus on the Razorbacks.

Florida 99%ML 51k -7 Well the Gators are now such favorites that has is 8-2 ATS neutral court, 26-10 ATS for the season, but is 0-2 ATS in the NCAA tournament. I like the momentum of the Maryland squad after the step and buzzer beater. These tournament games get tough and there are upsets no matter how many people bet the other side. I’ll take Maryland +7 however 88% on the Gators here.

Auburn 95% 35k ML – Beware this Michigan team, I was impressed with their entire finish in taking my ten bucks vs. Texas A&M. They have the size with Goldin and you have to deal with the pick and roll he is threat to score or hit the free throw line every time. We will see how Auburn handles the pressure on them to win. I’ll take the other “Big Blue” +8.5 and see how that fares.

Mississippi +148ML 45% This one is where I like to see the SEC team but this is probably an MSU win. They beat the shit outta UNC so they can play with anyone, they won at Arkansas too. 53% Michigan St -3.5

Houston 95% ML Hou -8 Its Purdue now against Houston and with this one with the extra prep time the betters are taking Houston -8. For me I’m actually hoping for an upset in this game because I’m a UK Fan. 78% on the Cougars -8, but Painter has had his teams getting better with his tournament prep for teams. I’ll take the underdog and fade the consensus again. Houston 3-5-1 ATS Neutral I’ll take Purdue +8

Kentucky 29% ML +154 – Possibly the best two game from UK this year their two wins vs. Tennessee. Can they beat them three in a row? I’ll take UK this may just be a matchup that favors the

Arkansas vs St. John’s – Calipari vs. Pitino, but this one seems like a game where Pitino would be in the white suit with red handkerchief and change it at halftime. Arkansas was a team with little concern for early season loses as the unity and cohesiveness built as the year went on. They have the size to match up with anyone, and while I did initially pick St. Johns for the Final Four, I see this game as even match weighted to the Hogs for Davis and the importance of having the best point guard on the floor. I’ll take the points and enjoy a good game, no I wouldn’t be surprised to see St. Johns cover on free throws but I’m taking the points knowing this is a heavyweight battle.

The only concern for Auburn tonight in Lexington is they only one twice this year at Rupp before that they hadn’t since 1980’s, but they have the 3 point defense. In fact the Blue Jays have Big East Defensive POY 4 years in row. With the big spread here I look at the UNDER but see the bookmaker already weighted it slightly down at 149.5. I haven’t done well this year on the opening round but there have been many distractions so don’t worry about those first days. I would expect get a better number live bet if you want Auburn or take the points if you like Creighton but I think this Auburn team finds a way to win against a dangerous team. My pick here is the UNDER and we will see the rest.

UCLA vs. Tennessee I see the total here is set for a Rick Barnes defensive classic. Couple that with Zeigler being now spent most of his life in Knoxville as the millionth year point guard. Couple that with the way the Vols play at Rupp Arena and I’ll try to get the live bet for my side play, but I think they win and cover tonight. Tennessee -5 or -220 money line and even though that could get over I like UNDER 131 as well as the SEC stamps two sweet sixteen slots tonight in Lexington.

Gonzaga v Houston – This is contrasting styles as Houston likes the defensive game but the Zags are rolling up and down the floor 2nd in points scored. Its going to be Houston not letting them get clean shots and just setting defensive position where it affects shots, I may have been the goofiest 6 ft 2 center in rec specs they ever saw in youth basketball but they still nightmares of their shots blocked into the stands and once that mentality gets in the its in their mind and they will adjust for that bringing the shooter off where is squared with his eyes on the prize. If they get the defense locked in they will win. Looking at the number they expect this to be a close game for what some consider the favorite in Houston, and I’m gonna say try to get Houston even money on live bet because the Zags are likely to be in this one. Even the outright upset has to be weighed into account because the Zags are a perineal sweet 16 team. These are both great teams from bad leagues so it’s hard to figure how they will go. I picked Houston to make it through but I’ll put Gonzaga +5 and UNDER 140.5 as my picks and its the tournament don’t be surprised if Gonzaga steals the stage as they have done year after year in Few’s tenure, both coaches over 700 wins here, I just have to take into account the Bulldogs NCAA record into factor and think they have a good shot to cover even if they lose with Houston wanting the defensive game.

BYU – Wisconsin Watched the Badgers more this year than the Cougars, but this might be a high scoring game, an alarming 90% on the over at 155.5 remember the bookie usually only gives free lunch Monday and Thursday during NFL season. A 1 point spread, pick a side if you want because I’ll leave that alone with the over as the only place I’ll look at.

Texas A&M vs. Michigan – While the “OTHER BIG BLUE” did look impressive round 1 look at those Aggie seniors and they have been through a tough SEC so they should be able to not be out “Big Schooled” by the Wolverines. I’ll take A&M -3, or money line.

Last one Drake +7.5, I have no idea really here so I just took the underdog. These aren’t teams I get my eyes on much.

As always Best of Luck

Duke UNDER 140.5 Its a new era in Chapel Hill and they are loaded with talent and looking to keep the tradition just like Bob Knight handed to Coach K, now John Scheyer is likely to be elite 8 minimum most every season. I shy away from the big spread that Duke will probably cover and take the UNDER 140.5

Florida OVER 153.5 I would have the Gators on a long road to the tournament but since they won the league tournament they may be get ahead of themselves after they blow out these first two teams. I’ll take Florida Over Team Total , OVER 153.5

U CONN -5.5- Last two years UCONN in the NCAA has been 6-0 ATS, this team a step back without top lottery picks but still beware they have literally been unbeatable the past two years.

Miss St Watched the Bulldogs a few times this year, they have seniors leaders at guard and Matthews is their leader on the court. Him being able to make a change in the game will be the difference

Alabama over Team Total, or -22- The Tide will bounce back big time after getting blown out in the second game of SEC Tournament

UK-11.5 – Three Ball is back and all signs point to a likely cover in what could be whatever these guys make it because they have an all new team from last year but no one is talking about UK and they are a 3 seed

Xavier was my side but on closer review I’ll go -OVER 160

Memphis +1.5 – This is always a tough game but I’ll take Memphis here

Akron+14.5 They run a full 9 to 10 man roster, have scored over 100 five times and looks for open 3s first, but they are undersized against a really good Arizona team. I’ll take the points.

Iowa St -15 is either the play or just lay off this game completely.

UNC-2 Consensus on Tar Heels plus the senior ball handler so these guys can go to the Final Four and lose

Marquette -4 – Another good team from the Big East, they should excel out of their league.

Vandy +165 The Commodores are always a team I route for when they aren’t playing UK. They are a danger for the outright upset or take the +4 if you think you need them

Clemson -7.5 – A team that went on a run last year and they come back after competing for the ACC this year. This team will either be there or the won’t but I’ll try to get them with a discount live bet however I think they cover the -7.5

Highpoint +9 – Boilermakers 1-5 ATS neutral site and 4-7 non confernce. They miss having Edey put I’m taking High Point and pray it don’t jam.

Arkansas V Kansas – I see it all piled on consensus on the Hogs here. Really where else could I go but the points knowing that Kansas has been unfocused waiting on the tournament with some of their guys like Dickinson being the fifth year of eligibility. Arkansas +5

St. Johns -19 It happened Pitino with NIL in NYC and he will be going for a final four at a minimum here, they can be upset but he has these guys ready. Lay the points.

Auburn – 32 – Auburn covers if they want to here, and if they don’t want to then they won’t. I’d think they put a beat down after playing a gauntlet in the league.

Louisville -2.5 – Even with ACC a bit weaker this year it was good to see that they once again are competing and even blowing some teams out. I’ll take the Cards but what else am I to do since their games come on my local tv somehow.

UCLA -5.5 – I like to watch UCLA sometimes but haven’t got to much this year, I think Mick Cronin will have them ready here and they cover on free throws.

Woff/Tenn – No Bet

Houston – Get used to Houston at the top of college hoops, They play defense as well so maybe take a look at the under here and the bookmaker did as well with the low number of 126.5, still this isn’t where I want my money laying 29 even though its gonna be a blowout.

Georgia +6 – The Bulldogs are a tough draw for whoever they got and this years Gonzaga team is a bit less high level talent it seems. However the Zags have a streak of sweet sixteens or something like that and UGA is not a perineal NCAA qualifier.

Drake +6 This is just a follow of consensus against a pretty damn good Mizzou team with a hell of a fifth year player from Lexington. But the wagers are on Drake for a reason so I follow even though its not a sure thing.

UNC WIL/TX TECH NO BET

Michigan -2.5 – Where else can I go even though this San Diego team is obviously expected to be in game with the line being so low. Beware of Michigan here but I can’t pick against them.

Texas A&M -7.5 -Consensus on Yale, but A&M still the big favorite here because of all the seniors in the backcourt. This group struggled and I lost a bet when they played at Florida and then when Vandy was in College Station. I would think outside the league this team is right back to one of the toughest and most overlooked teams in a 14 SEC team group. I would definitely not lay the number here as Yale knocked off Auburn last year and is taking its lump of wagers for the outright upset. These are both veteran groups and we should see the number ease on down closer to even as a tight game with be the whole way.

BYU-2 – The age and experience here is where I’m on BYU, they lost last year to a Duquesne team that had Lebron give them shoes before the game. They should pull out a win here.

Wisconsin -17 – Where else could you go ? Lay off the high number for me all together. They should cover but I’ve seen so many upsets I’m not laying because I havent’ watched the Badgers enough this season.

Thats right the Steelers haven’t won in Philadelphia since 65. 73 % of the money on Pittsburgh consensus. These two have really got up and down the field in the past two matchups with the Eagles getting the 64 points in two matchups. The Steelers 51 in 22 and 20 but with Wilson is this team really ready to line up with a team that was so close to beating those Chiefs a few years ago? I almost never do this but I’m going to lay the number with the Eagles here. Pittsburgh also the heavy consensus money line for the outright upset.

It was just last October the Titans did something I call the worst 3 hours in sports. That is put me on the wrong end of a blowout loss. They rang the Bengals to a stunning 27-3 victory. That was Tannehill, that was Joe Burrow 20-30, 165 yards and no TD. That was week 4 last year and we see the Bengals favored in Nashville again. After a few low scoring Bengals wins in row in the series only about a 1 out of last 4 matchups 25% of the Bengals to cover. The total at 46 and really with the Bengals having 9 overs this year its hard to say this is going to be an UNDER, but this is cold weather football and while Will Levis may not league wide as a top 15 QB he has shown why the Titans drafted and then stuck with him during wins like the Houston game. I will probably just go with the Bengals again and put that with the UNDER. I expect the Titans to try to run the ball and play their game plan. The Under is my best pick here even though I know the Bengals are really good on offense and really bad on D. I think the Bengals find a way to win this one but if the Titans were to say sneak a halftime lead then know before you put your dollars there this Titans team is capable of the upset outright, and one can definitely make a mathematical based decision that Tennessee with the points is statistically the best pick.

The Chargers are my pick to win the game against Tampa, at -150 money line I either take it there or try my luck getting it even money on live bet. Either way think this is a low scoring one as well but consensus is squarely on the over and that is a number where it can go either way like 27-20 or 23-20 so there it goes. Just the Chargers for me.

The night game looks to have the action on the road team and the over, but I expect this to be another December night game and most likely an UNDER play for me. Consensus 62% on the over but I won’t let that deter me. The Seahawks defense is used to seeing SF with the motion, they are at least able to stay in those games and finally got over the hump. This is a different group in Green Bay and playoff style football might be in order tonight as Seattle is in position for Geno Smith to win the division and have a dream run.

Get Griff's best pick for the Saturday 11-22-24

Dallas vs. Atlanta, it’s the Cowboys who haven’t met their great expectations but remember two things here 1. Since the only games that mattered last year for DaK and the Cowboys were playoff games then really when they slide into a wild card then the only games that will matter for them is playoff games again. 2. Kirk Cousins is 2-9 for his career vs. Dallas. There used to be less room for error but with the expanded season now it’ll be when they are able to see what Zeke has left in the tank or whoever else can step up and tote the rock that this team then will be able to ease up the defense and control the clock but they at least have the pieces. Maybe they all need to put in their mouth guards and try to knock each other out then they will build some trust amongst the guys. Money line

The Chargers have the type of team where they feel like they are better than the record. Not even sure who is starting QB for the Browns anymore and that might be a good thing longterm. I know there is a risk of the game looking like it did in Pittsburgh but there was injury questions at QB heading into that game and they will have some learning experiences but I’d be surprised if this game is one of those. I’ll take LA.

This is one of those games where the Bengals are favored by way too much, especially with Higgins possibly out, but historically the Bengals have won 4 or 5 since 2015 against the Raiders, all four wins have been by a TD or more. The Raiders have the defensive mastermind who it will be up to him to figure out how to stop the Bengals because if they get rollin then its gonna be a long day. The Raiders have the patched up offensive line and Minshew but when he was in Indy last year it went 34-14 Bengals. The Eagles when they have Brown healthy are just capable of doing what they did last week, so it was tied before things went that way and you know that game isn’t being replayed today so you can lay the -7 or piddle around and hope for a live bet because they may cover or not but this is a game the Bengals are supposed to win.

Goff 5-2 vs. The Packers. Lions have won 3 of 4 vs. Green Bay the past two seasons. I’ll let that be that I’m taking the Lions here knowing that this is a tough division game while they may win it is against another playoff team from last year that looks poised to land in a wild card so you at least know your in for a game before you lay your money

The Head to Head record is so lopsided the Bills way in the matchup all I can say when the games go that way with one side dominating and receiving the type of gamblers who know that stat so they raise the line to a place where the Bills may win and the Bills Mafia gamblers get cut short by the number. I look to that pile of money and say this is division football in November give me under.