Duke ML 99% 43k vs Arizona – Don’t fall into following these huge money line consensus favorites. The Blue Devils are leading the tournament in margin of victory. You may look live bet here but if your headstrong on the Duke side then just lay the number where you get your bet at. Duke has been the one man show and if that show gets slowed then it happens in the tournament. 78 % of the bets on Duke laying that -9.5 points here. I would recommend waiting because Arizona isn’t going to be blown out from the tip off, they have the talent to beat Duke but those balls have to bounce their way. Duke has been a second half team like in the ACC Championship where they just take off at half time.

Bama 88% ML 17k 90% over 176 – Look for a high scoring matchup here Alabama made the run last year with the same unit of guys but this BYU bunch is no slouch and is capable of surprising some people but at -5.5 is where my pick is the Tide have been covering a lot, 70 % consensus on the Tide -5.5, play around and get a better number if you want but if this thing goes one way then its gone.

Arkansas 49 ML +205 – The most amazing thing about this spread is that Arkansas just played so well vs. St. Johns but the books are still giving all that respect to Texas Tech, who now I have laid my eyes on them in the madness and see they are playing really good. The Line Tech -5.5 and for me the pick is Arkansas as they played their game, their size is a defensive nightmare for opponents. I’ll take the points here with 54% consensus on the Razorbacks.

Florida 99%ML 51k -7 Well the Gators are now such favorites that has is 8-2 ATS neutral court, 26-10 ATS for the season, but is 0-2 ATS in the NCAA tournament. I like the momentum of the Maryland squad after the step and buzzer beater. These tournament games get tough and there are upsets no matter how many people bet the other side. I’ll take Maryland +7 however 88% on the Gators here.

Auburn 95% 35k ML – Beware this Michigan team, I was impressed with their entire finish in taking my ten bucks vs. Texas A&M. They have the size with Goldin and you have to deal with the pick and roll he is threat to score or hit the free throw line every time. We will see how Auburn handles the pressure on them to win. I’ll take the other “Big Blue” +8.5 and see how that fares.

Mississippi +148ML 45% This one is where I like to see the SEC team but this is probably an MSU win. They beat the shit outta UNC so they can play with anyone, they won at Arkansas too. 53% Michigan St -3.5

Houston 95% ML Hou -8 Its Purdue now against Houston and with this one with the extra prep time the betters are taking Houston -8. For me I’m actually hoping for an upset in this game because I’m a UK Fan. 78% on the Cougars -8, but Painter has had his teams getting better with his tournament prep for teams. I’ll take the underdog and fade the consensus again. Houston 3-5-1 ATS Neutral I’ll take Purdue +8

Kentucky 29% ML +154 – Possibly the best two game from UK this year their two wins vs. Tennessee. Can they beat them three in a row? I’ll take UK this may just be a matchup that favors the

Arkansas vs St. John’s – Calipari vs. Pitino, but this one seems like a game where Pitino would be in the white suit with red handkerchief and change it at halftime. Arkansas was a team with little concern for early season loses as the unity and cohesiveness built as the year went on. They have the size to match up with anyone, and while I did initially pick St. Johns for the Final Four, I see this game as even match weighted to the Hogs for Davis and the importance of having the best point guard on the floor. I’ll take the points and enjoy a good game, no I wouldn’t be surprised to see St. Johns cover on free throws but I’m taking the points knowing this is a heavyweight battle.

The only concern for Auburn tonight in Lexington is they only one twice this year at Rupp before that they hadn’t since 1980’s, but they have the 3 point defense. In fact the Blue Jays have Big East Defensive POY 4 years in row. With the big spread here I look at the UNDER but see the bookmaker already weighted it slightly down at 149.5. I haven’t done well this year on the opening round but there have been many distractions so don’t worry about those first days. I would expect get a better number live bet if you want Auburn or take the points if you like Creighton but I think this Auburn team finds a way to win against a dangerous team. My pick here is the UNDER and we will see the rest.

UCLA vs. Tennessee I see the total here is set for a Rick Barnes defensive classic. Couple that with Zeigler being now spent most of his life in Knoxville as the millionth year point guard. Couple that with the way the Vols play at Rupp Arena and I’ll try to get the live bet for my side play, but I think they win and cover tonight. Tennessee -5 or -220 money line and even though that could get over I like UNDER 131 as well as the SEC stamps two sweet sixteen slots tonight in Lexington.

Gonzaga v Houston – This is contrasting styles as Houston likes the defensive game but the Zags are rolling up and down the floor 2nd in points scored. Its going to be Houston not letting them get clean shots and just setting defensive position where it affects shots, I may have been the goofiest 6 ft 2 center in rec specs they ever saw in youth basketball but they still nightmares of their shots blocked into the stands and once that mentality gets in the its in their mind and they will adjust for that bringing the shooter off where is squared with his eyes on the prize. If they get the defense locked in they will win. Looking at the number they expect this to be a close game for what some consider the favorite in Houston, and I’m gonna say try to get Houston even money on live bet because the Zags are likely to be in this one. Even the outright upset has to be weighed into account because the Zags are a perineal sweet 16 team. These are both great teams from bad leagues so it’s hard to figure how they will go. I picked Houston to make it through but I’ll put Gonzaga +5 and UNDER 140.5 as my picks and its the tournament don’t be surprised if Gonzaga steals the stage as they have done year after year in Few’s tenure, both coaches over 700 wins here, I just have to take into account the Bulldogs NCAA record into factor and think they have a good shot to cover even if they lose with Houston wanting the defensive game.

BYU – Wisconsin Watched the Badgers more this year than the Cougars, but this might be a high scoring game, an alarming 90% on the over at 155.5 remember the bookie usually only gives free lunch Monday and Thursday during NFL season. A 1 point spread, pick a side if you want because I’ll leave that alone with the over as the only place I’ll look at.

Texas A&M vs. Michigan – While the “OTHER BIG BLUE” did look impressive round 1 look at those Aggie seniors and they have been through a tough SEC so they should be able to not be out “Big Schooled” by the Wolverines. I’ll take A&M -3, or money line.

Last one Drake +7.5, I have no idea really here so I just took the underdog. These aren’t teams I get my eyes on much.

As always Best of Luck

Duke UNDER 140.5 Its a new era in Chapel Hill and they are loaded with talent and looking to keep the tradition just like Bob Knight handed to Coach K, now John Scheyer is likely to be elite 8 minimum most every season. I shy away from the big spread that Duke will probably cover and take the UNDER 140.5

Florida OVER 153.5 I would have the Gators on a long road to the tournament but since they won the league tournament they may be get ahead of themselves after they blow out these first two teams. I’ll take Florida Over Team Total , OVER 153.5

U CONN -5.5- Last two years UCONN in the NCAA has been 6-0 ATS, this team a step back without top lottery picks but still beware they have literally been unbeatable the past two years.

Miss St Watched the Bulldogs a few times this year, they have seniors leaders at guard and Matthews is their leader on the court. Him being able to make a change in the game will be the difference

Alabama over Team Total, or -22- The Tide will bounce back big time after getting blown out in the second game of SEC Tournament

UK-11.5 – Three Ball is back and all signs point to a likely cover in what could be whatever these guys make it because they have an all new team from last year but no one is talking about UK and they are a 3 seed

Xavier was my side but on closer review I’ll go -OVER 160

Memphis +1.5 – This is always a tough game but I’ll take Memphis here

Akron+14.5 They run a full 9 to 10 man roster, have scored over 100 five times and looks for open 3s first, but they are undersized against a really good Arizona team. I’ll take the points.

Iowa St -15 is either the play or just lay off this game completely.

UNC-2 Consensus on Tar Heels plus the senior ball handler so these guys can go to the Final Four and lose

Marquette -4 – Another good team from the Big East, they should excel out of their league.

Vandy +165 The Commodores are always a team I route for when they aren’t playing UK. They are a danger for the outright upset or take the +4 if you think you need them