Tuesday, April 15, 2025:

• Night (AWST): Tropical Cyclone Errol forms to the north of Western Australia (WA).

Wednesday, April 16, 2025:

• Early Thursday (AWST): Errol strengthens to a tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
• 8:00 AM AWST: Errol is a category two tropical cyclone located roughly 515 km to the north northwest of Broome, moving west.
• Wednesday Afternoon (AWST): Errol intensifies into a category three severe tropical cyclone. Its center has winds reaching 150 kilometers per hour.
• During the day (AWST): Satellite imagery shows Errol with an approximately 8 nautical mile wide eye surrounded by a solid central dense overcast. The eye temperature is a positive 15°C.
• By 2:00 PM AWST: Satellite data indicates a symmetrical eye, suggesting the storm is not encountering weakening factors.
• Afternoon/Evening (AWST): Errol undergoes an amazing period of extreme rapid intensification, intensifying 85 knots in the last 24 hours and more than 50 knots in the last 12 hours.
• Between approximately 7:41 AM and 8:05 AM UTC (equivalent to afternoon AWST): Microwave passes suggest Errol completed a rapid eyewall replacement cycle (ERC).
• By 15:00 UTC (11:00 PM AWST): JTWC's initial position assessment places Errol at 14.4S 118.9E, about 283 nautical miles northwest of Broome, Australia, with an initial intensity of 140 knots (approximately 161 mph). Significant wave height is 47 feet. Errol is moving southwestward at 4 knots. JTWC assesses that Errol has likely reached its peak intensity.
• 19:27 UTC (Early Thursday morning AWST, April 17th): The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issues Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin 1, identifying Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol (Category 4 equivalent based on 10-minute winds of 100 knots/185 km/h and 3-second gusts of 140 knots/260 km/h). Its location is 14.7S 118.8E, moving south at 4 knots. Central pressure is 946 hPa. BOM notes the eye is showing some weakening and cloud top warming to the northeast of the center, indicating peak intensity has likely been reached. They forecast weakening as Errol approaches the west Kimberley coast.

Thursday, April 17, 2025:

• By Thursday Morning (AWST): Forecast models suggest Errol could briefly intensify into a category 4 system (Australian scale).
• Thursday (AWST): Errol is expected to make a left-hand (eastward) turn and start moving towards WA’s Kimberley coast.
• Throughout the day (AWST): Increasing vertical wind shear and dry air intrusion are expected to become less favorable for Errol to maintain its strength after it turns south.

Friday, April 18, 2025:

• Errol is expected to weaken as it approaches the Kimberley coast.
• A tropical cyclone watch is expected to be issued for gale force winds to develop in 48 hours for the exposed islands of the Kimberley coast (Friday night or early Saturday).
• Isolated heavy rainfall could develop between Kuri Bay and Broome overnight and persist during Saturday morning as Errol moves closer.

Saturday, April 19, 2025:

• Errol is most likely to make landfall as a tropical low (below tropical cyclone strength) this weekend, potentially on Saturday morning near Cape Leveque or Cockatoo Island.
• Damaging winds could extend southwards from Beagle Bay to Broome depending on the track

Timeline of Events

• Approximately 2019: Abrego Garcia is arrested while looking for work at a Home Depot in Maryland. An immigration judge initially orders his deportation.
• Later Immigration Proceedings (Date unspecified): An immigration judge ultimately determines that Abrego Garcia should not be deported to El Salvador due to potential persecution, issuing a "withholding from removal" order.
• Recently Before March 15, 2025: Federal immigration agents pull over Abrego Garcia, falsely accuse him of MS-13 membership, and incorrectly tell him his protected status has changed.
• March 15, 2025: Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is deported to El Salvador and sent to the Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo (CECOT), a notorious Salvadoran prison, along with scores of other migrants (Salvadoran and Venezuelan). The Trump administration later acknowledges this deportation was initially an error.
• Sometime After March 15, 2025: Abrego Garcia's family sues the U.S. government, claiming wrongful deportation.
• Week of April 7-11, 2025 (Implied): A federal district court judge (Paula Xinis) orders the Trump administration to "facilitate" Abrego Garcia's return to the U.S.
• Week of April 7-11, 2025 (Implied): A federal appeals court agrees with Judge Xinis, likening Abrego Garcia's removal to a kidnapping.
• Week of April 7-11, 2025 (Implied): The Supreme Court weighs in, endorsing the view that the administration needs to "facilitate" Abrego Garcia's return but stops short of ordering it.
• Shortly Before April 14, 2025: President Trump, on Truth Social, claims that the fate of the deported migrants is in the hands of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, as they are in El Salvador's sole custody.
• Monday, April 14, 2025: President Trump holds an Oval Office news conference with El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele. Trump states he is "powerless" to seek Abrego Garcia's freedom, deferring to Attorney General Pam Bondi. Bondi states it's up to El Salvador to return him, and the U.S. would only "facilitate" by providing a plane if El Salvador agreed. Bukele calls Abrego Garcia a "terrorist" and dismisses the idea of returning him as "preposterous."
• Monday, April 14, 2025: Trump's advisor Stephen Miller claims on Fox News that the acknowledgment of wrongful deportation was by a "saboteur" and that Abrego Garcia was "rightfully sent to the right place."
• Monday, April 14, 2025: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during the Oval Office meeting, states that no U.S. court has the right to conduct U.S. foreign policy.
• Monday, April 14, 2025: Senator Chris Van Hollen announces he will travel to El Salvador on Wednesday to check on Abrego Garcia and discuss his release.
• Tuesday, April 15, 2025: A hearing is held in Federal District Court in Maryland before Judge Paula Xinis. She scolds the Trump administration for not complying with the Supreme Court order and for "dragging its feet."
• Tuesday, April 15, 2025: Judge Xinis states her intention to force Trump officials to reveal their efforts to secure Abrego Garcia's return through written questions and depositions. She sets a fast schedule for this process, including allowing Abrego Garcia's lawyers to make document requests and depose administration officials.
• Tuesday, April 15, 2025: Justice Department lawyer Drew Ensign argues that the administration interprets "facilitate" to mean removing domestic obstacles to Abrego Garcia's return if he presents himself at a port of entry.

Timeline of Events

• Prior to March 24, 2025: Former President Donald Trump issues an executive order titled "Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness," which includes renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America and Denali back to Mount McKinley.
• By March 24, 2025: The Florida Legislature is considering a bill to change signage from "Gulf of Mexico" to "Gulf of America." Senator Joe Gruters' bill initially directs the Department of Transportation to rename the Tamiami Trail to the "Gulf of America Trail" and erect suitable markers. A staff report on March 10 indicates that the costs for complying with the bill's requirements for state and local governmental entities are unknown.
• Mid-March 2025 (Implied): The Republican-controlled Florida House and Senate pass bills (HB 575 and HB 549) to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America in state law and require state agencies and school districts to update "geographic materials" and instructional materials accordingly. Senator Gruters withdraws the provision to rename the Tamiami Trail after public outcry. He indicates that the changes in instructional materials will occur gradually as new materials are purchased.
• April 14, 2025: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signs two bills (HB 575 and HB 549) into law. These bills officially rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America in Florida state law and public school textbooks. The change will be reflected in new instructional materials purchased after July 1, 2025. Senators Nick DiCeglie and Joe Gruters attend the signing ceremony in the governor's office and express pride in following President Trump's leadership and emphasizing American greatness. Noticeably absent from the bill signing are members of the Florida House, reflecting ongoing tensions with the governor.
• After July 1, 2025: State agencies and school districts in Florida will begin adopting and acquiring new "geographic materials" and instructional materials (like textbooks and media center additions) that refer to the body of water as the Gulf of America.

Timeline of Main Events

• February 2025: The Trump administration initially fires more than 800 probationary workers at NOAA.
• March 2025: A federal court blocks the Trump administration's initial firing of NOAA workers, and they are reinstated.
• March 2025 (Late): The Trump administration begins cutting and withholding federal grants for several major universities, starting with $400 million in funding pulled from Columbia University. This is followed by a pause of $175 million in funding to the University of Pennsylvania and a review of roughly $9 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard.
• April 8, 2025: News reports about President Trump's NASA pick and their hearing for a top spot within the agency emerge.
• April 9, 2025: The Trump administration announces it is cutting nearly $4 million in federal funding for climate change research at Princeton University, citing "exaggerated and implausible climate threats" and increased "climate anxiety." This cut impacts the Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System, a collaboration between NOAA and Princeton.
• April 10, 2025: The Trump administration informs NOAA workers that they are being fired again, following an appeals court overturning the earlier ruling that had blocked the terminations. This affects hundreds of climate and weather specialists.
• April 11, 2025:News breaks about President Trump's preliminary budget proposal to Congress, known as a "passback," which would cut NASA's science budget by nearly half.
• Details emerge that the proposed NASA cuts would severely impact astrophysics, heliophysics, Earth science, and planetary science, potentially terminating missions like the next major space telescope (including the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope) and the Mars Sample Return mission. The Hubble and Webb telescopes would remain supported.
• An internal budget document reveals the Trump administration's aim to end nearly all climate research conducted by NOAA. This includes eliminating NOAA's climate research centers, cutting hundreds of federal and academic climate scientists, and slashing funding for the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR).
• The proposed NOAA budget cuts would also impact competitive climate research grants, regional climate data collection, the National Oceanographic Partnership Program, college and aquaculture sea grant programs, the National Ocean Service, and the National Marine Fisheries Service.
• NOAA forecasters declare the end of La Niña.

The recent changes in the US research and political landscape, particularly following the new administration of President Donald Trump, are having a profound negative impact on the US scientific and medical communities. Drastic cuts to research funding, widespread layoffs of federal scientists, immigration crackdowns, and concerns over academic freedom are leading to a significant exodus of talent from the United States. This briefing document outlines the main themes and important facts from the provided sources, highlighting the distress and uncertainty within these sectors and the increasing interest among US scientists and doctors in relocating to countries like Europe and Canada.

Key Themes and Findings:

1. Mass Exodus of Scientists Driven by Funding Cuts and Uncertainty:

• A Nature poll revealed that 75% of US scientists who responded (over 1,200 out of 1,600) are considering leaving the United States following the disruptions prompted by the Trump administration.
• "More than 1,200 scientists who responded to a Nature poll — three-quarters of the total respondents — are considering leaving the United States following the disruptions prompted by Trump." (Nature News)
• This trend is particularly strong among early-career researchers, with a large majority of postgraduate researchers (548 out of 690) and PhD students (255 out of 340) considering leaving.
• The primary drivers for this consideration are slashed research funding due to a government-wide cost-cutting initiative led by Elon Musk, and the halting of broad swathes of federally funded science.
• "Trump’s administration has slashed research funding and halted broad swathes of federally funded science, under a government-wide cost-cutting initiative led by billionaire Elon Musk." (Nature News)
• Tens of thousands of federal employees, including many scientists, have been fired and rehired following a court order, creating further instability and fear of future job losses.
• Researchers are experiencing uncertainty and disruption across all aspects of the US research enterprise due to immigration crackdowns and battles over academic freedom.

outlines the critical situation surrounding the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as the Trump administration actively pursues its dismantling. This development coincides with a significant increase in climate-related major disaster declarations in the United States, reaching a near-record high in 2024. The turmoil within FEMA, including stalled funding, hiring freezes, and a planned reduction in force, threatens the agency's ability to effectively respond to the growing frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Experts warn that shifting disaster response responsibilities primarily to states, while simultaneously weakening FEMA, could have severe consequences for communities across the nation.

Main Themes and Important Ideas/Facts:

1. Trump Administration's Intent to Eliminate or Fundamentally Reform FEMA:

• Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has vowed to "eliminate FEMA," and top officials from FEMA and DHS have met to discuss options for shutting down the agency.
• There are discussions about moving more quickly to dismantle FEMA instead of following President Trump's executive order establishing a FEMA Review Council.
• President Trump stated his desire to "begin the process of fundamentally reforming and overhauling FEMA, or maybe getting rid of FEMA."
• An executive order has been signed outlining the desire to shift more disaster response and recovery responsibility to the states.

2. Current Turmoil and Stalled Operations Within FEMA:

• FEMA is already in turmoil, with disaster assistance, grant money, and hiring largely stalled.
• Hurricane planning for the upcoming season has been paused: "March is typically when we’re finalizing hurricane plans. A lot of that got paused,” a FEMA official told CNN. “So, it’s already having an impact, which is that we’re not preparing.”
• A new hiring process requires direct approval from Secretary Noem's team for renewing the terms of many of the agency's workers, including those in public-facing roles critical for disaster response and recovery. These impacted positions include CORE, Reservists, Local Hires, and Temporary Fulltime Employees, which constitute roughly 74% of FEMA's workforce.
• "I think their terms will be allowed to expire, and they won’t be renewed," a FEMA official stated.
• Over $100 billion in previously awarded grant money and disaster assistance was frozen due to a lack of guidance on adhering to Trump's executive orders restricting funding for immigration programs and sanctuary cities. While guidance has since been issued, concerns about disruptions persist.
• Nearly all FEMA payments outside of individual disaster assistance have been paused, impacting states, localities, and nonprofits, including fire departments and disaster recovery efforts.
• The firing of four FEMA employees, including the chief financial officer, for approving grant money to New York City to help shelter migrants has had a "chilling effect" on FEMA workers, with fears of job loss for misconstrued payments.
• A hiring freeze is in place, and Acting Administrator Cameron Hamilton submitted a plan to Secretary Noem for reducing FEMA's workforce, aiming to "reduce the agency’s staffing posture through unification of like-functions and with care that enhances our ability to deliver the mission, examines our geographic footprint, and rebalances federal and state roles in disaster preparedness, response and recovery."

• The Critical Need for Rhino Translocation: Black rhinos are critically endangered, and translocation is a vital conservation tool to protect them from poaching, facilitate monitoring, and ensure genetic diversity. The species largely exists in isolated protected areas, making movement necessary for population health.
• The Revolutionizing Role of Helicopters in Rhino Conservation: Helicopters have become increasingly important for rhino translocation since the 1990s, with methods refining in the 2010s. They offer a faster and less stressful alternative to traditional ground transport.
• The Innovative "Upside Down" Airlifting Technique: Hanging rhinos upside down by their feet from helicopters has proven to be the safest and most aerodynamic method for transport, despite initially seeming counterintuitive.
• The Adaptation of Military Technology for Conservation: War-torn helicopters, particularly UH1-H Hueys from the Vietnam War, are now being used for rhino conservation, highlighting an ironic twist of repurposing machines of war for saving wildlife.
• The Ongoing Efforts and Future of Rhino Conservation: Conservationists are continually studying and improving translocation methods and envision incorporating new technologies like drones and satellites. The success of translocation projects offers hope for the future of rhino populations.

Key Ideas and Facts:

• Black Rhino Population Status and Threats: Black rhino populations declined drastically due to poaching and habitat loss, reaching a low point in the 1990s. While conservation efforts have led to an increase (roughly 6,500 today), they remain critically endangered.
• Reasons for Translocation: According to Ursina Rusch of WWF South Africa, rhinos are moved for three main reasons:
• Protection from poaching.
• Monitoring (including GPS telemetry insertion).
• Ensuring genetic diversity by increasing their range and preventing inbreeding.
• Rusch states, "If we don't translocate rhinos and create new populations, they will inbreed enough that they crash, or run out of resources and stop breeding."
• Advantages of Helicopter Transport:Speed: Aerial tracking and darting by helicopter significantly reduces the time taken to immobilize a rhino compared to on-foot tracking. "Whereas before veterinarians would have spent 20 minutes on-foot tracking a half-way-sedated rhino, the helicopter team now saves precious time by aerially tracking the rhino – and within four minutes, the rhino falls unconscious," says Rusch.
• Reduced Stress and Injury: Traditional ground transport in crates can cause muscle or horn damage and potentially occlude airways. "These road trips could be stressful for the rhino passengers; they're awake for the journey (albeit, sometimes, anaesthetised) and standing in a crate, which can cause muscle or horn damage – or even occlude their airways, which can be fatal."
• Access to Remote Areas: Helicopters can reach capture and release sites inaccessible by road, particularly important in regions like Namibia's Kunene. Robin Radcliffe of Cornell University notes, "Conservationists 'really only consider slinging' as a solution when the capture or release site is inaccessible by road, he says, or when slinging significantly cuts down on transport time."
• The "Upside Down" Method:Initially, conservationists tried transporting rhinos on boards and in nets, but these methods had drawbacks related to aerodynamics and breathing.

Wednesday, April 2, 2025:

• Early Morning: Weather alerts are in effect across the central U.S. as forecasters monitor developing storms. Thunderstorms in the Midwest could remain severe after sunrise, influencing the severe threat for the rest of the day. Lingering storms in parts of Kansas and Missouri will likely strengthen as they move east into the Mississippi Valley by the early afternoon.
• Daytime: A significant severe weather threat is anticipated across a large swath from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley southwestward through the mid-South and southern Plains. The SPC upgrades the severe weather threat to a Level 5 out of 5 (High Risk) for over 4.4 million people in major Tennessee cities like Memphis, Clarksville, and Jackson, as well as Evansville, Indiana, and Jonesboro, Arkansas.
• Mid-Afternoon: Additional storms will develop in the Mississippi Valley, with some potentially undergoing "explosive" development.
• Afternoon/Evening: A tornado outbreak is expected, particularly in the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys and the eastern Ozarks. Numerous tornadoes, including multiple long-track EF3+ tornadoes, are likely. The greatest risk for tornadoes, some strong and long-lasting, will stretch from Arkansas to Indiana and Ohio, with many potentially occurring after sunset. The strongest storms could also dump baseball-sized hail in parts of the Mississippi Valley. Damaging wind gusts are also a significant threat. Severe thunderstorms could stretch from Louisiana and Arkansas north to Michigan, with a few more storms developing overnight in Texas. Schools in some areas dismiss students early and cancel after-school activities.
• Late Week (Starting Wednesday): The threat of significant, life-threatening flash flooding begins to grow in the Mississippi and Ohio valleys due to repeated rounds of heavy rain (training thunderstorms) moving over the same areas. Rainfall totals could exceed 5-8 inches in some spots within 24 hours, particularly from Arkansas into western Kentucky, on top of previous rainfall.

Thursday, April 3, 2025:

• Ongoing: The cold front will slow and stall from the Mississippi and Ohio valleys into the southern Plains. Even as the main storm system moves into Canada, daytime heating and high humidity will fuel another round of severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes possible.
• Flooding Intensifies: The expected prolonged heavy rain continues, with a Level 4 (highest threat level) flash flood risk for parts of western Tennessee and Kentucky. A Level 3 risk zone shifts slightly to the west. Rainfall totals could approach a foot in parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys through Sunday. The ground becomes increasingly saturated, increasing the risk of dangerous flash flooding. Areas repeatedly under the heaviest storms could see 2 to 6 inches of rain each day, especially from Arkansas to Indiana.

Friday, April 4, 2025:

• Ongoing: The flash flood threat remains significant, with a Level 3 risk zone shifting east again. The potential for heavy rain and severe storms continues in parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys.