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CropGPT - Fruits

CropGPT - Fruits

著者： CropGPT
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 Welcome to the CropGPT Fruits Podcast—your quick briefing on what’s shaping the global fruit market. From bananas and mangoes to berries and citrus, we break down the latest data on yields, weather disruptions, disease outbreaks, and shipping trends across major producing regions. Using real-time insights drawn from satellites, ground surveys, NGO updates, and local media, we deliver clear, crop-specific updates on supply shifts, production risks, and export changes—so you can respond faster and plan smarter. Our weekly episodes are under 3 minutes, designed for professionals who need clarity without complexity. Our deep dives, about specific issues are 15 to 30 minutes. Interested in other crops too? CropGPT offers dedicated podcasts for: Cocoa Coffee Fruits Grains Nuts Oils Sugar Our primary podcast, covering the global issues of logistics, tariffs, weather and pricing across all commodities is here.© 2025 CropGPT 政治・政府 経済学
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  • Global Blueberry Market June 2025 – Navigating Tariffs and Growth

    Global Blueberry Market June 2025 – Navigating Tariffs and Growth
    2025/06/09
    Global Blueberry Market 2025 – Navigating Tariffs and GrowthWelcome to our special episode on the global blueberry market in 2025, a pivotal season marked by significant growth alongside structural headwinds from new trade barriers. We'll explore how producers, traders, and retailers are adapting to a rapidly changing landscape.I. Global Trade Barriers: Tariff Watch 2025The year 2025 is the first since 2018 where every major blueberry corridor – Americas, Europe, and Asia – faces at least one new or threatened tariff barrier.•United States:A 10% baseline tariff on all blueberry imports was announced on 2nd April 2025. Higher country-specific surcharges are under discussion.This action raises landed costs for major exporters like Peru, Mexico, Chile, and Canada, particularly as their export volumes peak. Every 10% duty could lead to a ~10% drop in effective demand.The universal 10% duty could reduce arrival prices by an estimated 20p/lb, especially impacting standard-grade fruit and leading to margin compression.Canada and Mexico are initially shielded by USMCA, but face contingent 25% duties if ongoing talks fail. This North-South border uncertainty is freezing capital investment and could clog peak-season logistics, with risks to 40 million pounds of U.S. berries due to cross-border packing loops.U.S. importers and retailers should prepare for higher spot prices and potential gaps in frozen supply, with forward contracts and diversified sourcing becoming prudent hedges.China:An extra 10% retaliatory duty on all U.S. fruits and nuts became effective on 10th March 2025.This has made U.S. fresh blueberries approximately 12% more expensive than Chilean and Peruvian offers, causing the U.S. share in China's fresh-berry imports to shrink from 18% in 2024 to less than 10% year-to-date.U.S. suppliers are pivoting to South-East Asian markets such as Vietnam, Singapore, and South Korea, though these markets are smaller and more price-sensitive, increasing exposure to freight costs and currency swings.United Kingdom:Post-Brexit MFN duties remain unchanged: 2% on fresh and up to 20% on frozen sweetened blueberries.U.S. exporters consider the UK market "high-friction," with fresh shipments continuing but minimal processed-berry trade. Processors are considering EU plants to serve UK retail under existing EU-UK trade rules to bypass duties.Japan:A tariff gap persists, with 0% on fresh and dried, but 6%–9.6% on frozen blueberries.The U.S. frozen-berry share in Japan has slid from 21% (2018) to 15% (2024) as Canada and Chile benefit from tariff-free access.European Union:Blueberries were not included in the EU’s 2025 tariff-suspension list.This means MFN duty for fresh blueberries (seasonal 3%–9%) remains, while Andean and Southern African exporters continue to benefit from duty-free access via Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Peru, in particular, leverages its zero-duty edge, expanding reefer services to Rotterdam and Hamburg.II. Global Production Outlook 2025: Regional DynamicsThe global blueberry industry is seeing contrasting regional dynamics, with record harvests in some areas and challenges in others.United States (Northwest): The Pacific Northwest is poised for another strong harvest in 2025, following a 23% increase in utilised production in 2024 (reaching 789 million pounds valued at $1.15 billion). Producers are focusing on advanced genetics for better resilience, extended harvest windows, and enhanced sweetness.Portugal: The 2025 season is rain-delayed due to a wet winter and cool spring, leading to logistical concerns and disease pressure. However, producers are optimistic for a strong yield once harvesting ramps up in June and July.Mexico: A forecasted 9% drop in output (to 73,500 metric tons) is expected in 2025, driven by a shorter harvest and increased competition. Mexican producers are responding by investing in advanced cultivation techniques and shifting focus to higher-quality varieties like Biloxi and Sekoya Pop.Peru: Continues its rapid expansion, with the 2025/26 marketing year projected at a record 355,000 metric tons, nearly five times higher than a decade ago. Peru's dominance, driven by varietal replacement and precise fertigation, is putting price pressure on other Southern Hemisphere producers.Southern Africa (South Africa & Zimbabwe): Experiencing an early season success, boosted by the introduction of the MegaEarly variety. The region is focusing on infrastructure improvements and cold chain expansion.Australia: Facing a critical challenge due to an unidentified disorder causing blueberry plants to die prematurely, threatening yields across several regions. Research is ongoing to identify the cause.III. Overarching Global Industry TrendsBeyond individual country performance, several trends are shaping the global blueberry sector:Genetics: A significant surge in breeding programs to develop varieties with longer shelf life, improved flavour, and disease ...
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    26 分
  • Blueberries - Market Disruptions

    Blueberries - Market Disruptions
    2025/05/14

    Blueberries - Market Disruptions - Episode Summary

    Behind every punnet of blueberries lies a story of extreme weather, shifting labor forces, disrupted logistics, and changing consumer behaviour. In this episode, we take a data-rich deep dive into the global supply chain behind blueberries—and why recent years have brought turbulence to what used to be a dependable crop.

    From climate shocks in Peru 🇵🇪 and Spain 🇪🇸 to labor shortages in North America 🇺🇸 and rising shipping costs worldwide, we explore how each part of the system interlocks—and what happens when those parts break down.


    Topics Covered

    • Weather Disruptions: How droughts, frosts, and unseasonal heat affected major producing regions like Peru, Chile, Spain, and the U.S.
    • Labor Shortages: Why hand-picking blueberries is still essential—and how a global labor crunch left some harvests uncollected.
    • Logistics Breakdown: The impact of container shortages, shipping delays, and fumigation regulations on global trade flows.
    • Price Volatility: A breakdown of price spikes during COVID-19, weather events, and post-pandemic logistics shocks.
    • Consumer Resilience: Despite rising prices, demand has remained strong—why blueberries still make it into our baskets.

    Notable Insights

    • Peru’s 2023 harvest dropped by more than 50%, sending shockwaves through global supply.
    • U.S. wholesale blueberry prices spiked 73% in April 2021 due to Southeast frost damage.
    • In Ukraine, domestic prices rose over 60% in September 2023 due to reduced Peruvian imports.
    • Despite these disruptions, consumer loyalty remained high—many buyers adjusted quantity, not preference.
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    22 分
  • Strawberry Labour Risk Analysis

    Strawberry Labour Risk Analysis
    2025/05/07
    Podcast Episode: The Silent Crisis in Your Strawberry BasketEpisode Summary: Strawberries are a beloved fruit, a multi-billion dollar global industry. But behind the sweet taste lies a "silent crisis" threatening production: a massive labour shortage. This episode delves into the challenges faced by strawberry growers worldwide, from rising costs and tightening immigration policies to ethical concerns about labour conditions. We explore how regions like Scotland, Spain, Germany, and California are grappling with this issue and what strategies the industry is employing to adapt.Key Discussion Points:Strawberries are Highly Labour-Intensive: Unlike many other crops, strawberries must be hand-picked with care, often daily during peak season. This makes the industry heavily dependent on seasonal, often low-cost labour. Workers often spend ten to twelve hours stooped over rows of plants, exposed to extreme temperatures and tight production targets.The Global Labour Strain: What was once a predictable seasonal challenge has become a "structural fault line". Labour shortages are now a major threat, largely driven by policies on immigration. This dependency on low-cost, often immigrant labour, which was traditional, has become a crisis.Policy Impacts:UK: Post-Brexit policies have sharply reduced access to reliable seasonal labour. The Seasonal Worker Visa scheme exists but is criticised by producers as too restrictive and poorly timed and not sufficiently tailored to the needs of fruit growers. Scotland’s soft fruit sector is contracting, with acreage down due to difficulties sourcing workers, particularly from Eastern Europe, many of whom have not returned since the UK’s departure from the EU. Labour insecurity is directly linked to declining competitiveness in British strawberries.US: In California, delays and bottlenecks in H-2A guest worker programs increase dependence on more costly contract labour. Investigations have found labour law violations—including underpayment and illegal kickbacks—within the H-2A guestworker system.Spain: Compliance checks are increasing, with the EU and Spanish government cracking down on illegal farms and undocumented workers. Export-facing farms now require full traceability and documentation, adding administrative burdens. Visa delays mean some farms were short on required labour at peak harvest.Germany: Tightening rules on housing seasonal workers add to costs.Rising Costs: Wage bills have risen significantly in various regions (e.g., approximately 25% in the UK over four seasons, 15–20% in Spain recently, €0.50–€0.70 per kilogram in Germany due to increases in the minimum wage). Growers face a profitability squeeze as discount supermarket chains maintain rigid price expectations that prevent producers from passing on higher costs.Ethical and Reputational Risks: The industry’s reliance on vulnerable seasonal workers, often immigrants or migrants, who frequently lack access to formal protections or grievance mechanisms, has drawn scrutiny.Concerns include poor working conditions, low annual incomes (as little as $14,000 reported in the US), wage theft, and denial of basic workplace rights.Allegations of sexual exploitation, wage discrimination, and retaliatory dismissals have surfaced repeatedly in Spain’s Huelva region. Despite EU labour law, enforcement has been inconsistent, prompting some Northern European retailers to reassess sourcing strategies and supplier audit requirements.Child labour remains a concern on smaller holdings in Mexico (though reduced) and is noted as systemic in Egypt, where a significant portion of the agricultural workforce operates outside of formal social protections. Wage arrears, poor housing, and lack of insurance coverage for migrant workers have been documented on larger farms in China.In the post-pandemic era, ethical sourcing and ESG accountability have taken centre stage in investor and retail agendas. International organisations and trade partners are increasingly linking access to markets with adherence to minimum labour standards.Growers are Struggling:Many are finding it hard to find and afford labour.Profitability is squeezed by rising costs and rigid retail prices.Some growers are slashing acreage, leaving the sector, or even ploughing under crops before harvest to avoid costs.Labour insecurity is directly linked to declining competitiveness.Some large farms are shifting to more automated systems or contracting overseas firms for workforce management, while smaller farms without scale economies are struggling.Industry Adaptation Strategies: To survive, producers are turning to a mix of strategies.Technology: Adopting tabletop systems (reducing stooping, water, and labour needs by raising fruit to waist height, but requiring investment and potentially affecting flavour). Experimenting with automation and robotic harvesters (costs and berry quality remain hurdles).Crop Redesign: Shifting to firmer, longer-lasting ...
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    15 分

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