Global Blueberry Market June 2025 – Navigating Tariffs and Growth

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Global Blueberry Market June 2025 – Navigating Tariffs and Growth

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Global Blueberry Market 2025 – Navigating Tariffs and GrowthWelcome to our special episode on the global blueberry market in 2025, a pivotal season marked by significant growth alongside structural headwinds from new trade barriers. We'll explore how producers, traders, and retailers are adapting to a rapidly changing landscape.I. Global Trade Barriers: Tariff Watch 2025The year 2025 is the first since 2018 where every major blueberry corridor – Americas, Europe, and Asia – faces at least one new or threatened tariff barrier.•United States:A 10% baseline tariff on all blueberry imports was announced on 2nd April 2025. Higher country-specific surcharges are under discussion.This action raises landed costs for major exporters like Peru, Mexico, Chile, and Canada, particularly as their export volumes peak. Every 10% duty could lead to a ~10% drop in effective demand.The universal 10% duty could reduce arrival prices by an estimated 20p/lb, especially impacting standard-grade fruit and leading to margin compression.Canada and Mexico are initially shielded by USMCA, but face contingent 25% duties if ongoing talks fail. This North-South border uncertainty is freezing capital investment and could clog peak-season logistics, with risks to 40 million pounds of U.S. berries due to cross-border packing loops.U.S. importers and retailers should prepare for higher spot prices and potential gaps in frozen supply, with forward contracts and diversified sourcing becoming prudent hedges.China:An extra 10% retaliatory duty on all U.S. fruits and nuts became effective on 10th March 2025.This has made U.S. fresh blueberries approximately 12% more expensive than Chilean and Peruvian offers, causing the U.S. share in China's fresh-berry imports to shrink from 18% in 2024 to less than 10% year-to-date.U.S. suppliers are pivoting to South-East Asian markets such as Vietnam, Singapore, and South Korea, though these markets are smaller and more price-sensitive, increasing exposure to freight costs and currency swings.United Kingdom:Post-Brexit MFN duties remain unchanged: 2% on fresh and up to 20% on frozen sweetened blueberries.U.S. exporters consider the UK market "high-friction," with fresh shipments continuing but minimal processed-berry trade. Processors are considering EU plants to serve UK retail under existing EU-UK trade rules to bypass duties.Japan:A tariff gap persists, with 0% on fresh and dried, but 6%–9.6% on frozen blueberries.The U.S. frozen-berry share in Japan has slid from 21% (2018) to 15% (2024) as Canada and Chile benefit from tariff-free access.European Union:Blueberries were not included in the EU’s 2025 tariff-suspension list.This means MFN duty for fresh blueberries (seasonal 3%–9%) remains, while Andean and Southern African exporters continue to benefit from duty-free access via Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Peru, in particular, leverages its zero-duty edge, expanding reefer services to Rotterdam and Hamburg.II. Global Production Outlook 2025: Regional DynamicsThe global blueberry industry is seeing contrasting regional dynamics, with record harvests in some areas and challenges in others.United States (Northwest): The Pacific Northwest is poised for another strong harvest in 2025, following a 23% increase in utilised production in 2024 (reaching 789 million pounds valued at $1.15 billion). Producers are focusing on advanced genetics for better resilience, extended harvest windows, and enhanced sweetness.Portugal: The 2025 season is rain-delayed due to a wet winter and cool spring, leading to logistical concerns and disease pressure. However, producers are optimistic for a strong yield once harvesting ramps up in June and July.Mexico: A forecasted 9% drop in output (to 73,500 metric tons) is expected in 2025, driven by a shorter harvest and increased competition. Mexican producers are responding by investing in advanced cultivation techniques and shifting focus to higher-quality varieties like Biloxi and Sekoya Pop.Peru: Continues its rapid expansion, with the 2025/26 marketing year projected at a record 355,000 metric tons, nearly five times higher than a decade ago. Peru's dominance, driven by varietal replacement and precise fertigation, is putting price pressure on other Southern Hemisphere producers.Southern Africa (South Africa & Zimbabwe): Experiencing an early season success, boosted by the introduction of the MegaEarly variety. The region is focusing on infrastructure improvements and cold chain expansion.Australia: Facing a critical challenge due to an unidentified disorder causing blueberry plants to die prematurely, threatening yields across several regions. Research is ongoing to identify the cause.III. Overarching Global Industry TrendsBeyond individual country performance, several trends are shaping the global blueberry sector:Genetics: A significant surge in breeding programs to develop varieties with longer shelf life, improved flavour, and disease ...