US Housing Market Cools: Shift in Dynamics, Inventory Surge, and Affordability Outlook

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US Housing Market Cools: Shift in Dynamics, Inventory Surge, and Affordability Outlook

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The U.S. housing industry has just seen its most significant inventory surge in five years, creating a notable shift in market dynamics over the past 48 hours. Nationally, the median price for homes under contract is up only 0.55 percent compared to last summer, a clear sign that the dramatic price growth of previous years has cooled off significantly. This flattening is largely due to a jump in available homes, which now gives buyers more leverage to negotiate and puts downward pressure on prices.

Zillow forecasts that U.S. home values will decline by 1.4 percent in 2025, a revision now holding steady after earlier projections, and expects existing home sales to reach 4.14 million this year. This is a 1.9 percent increase over 2024, indicating a modest recovery in transactional volume, even as values slip. With mortgage rates remaining elevated, many potential buyers continue to wait on the sidelines, but some relief in rates is anticipated later this year, which may nudge affordability slightly higher.

Single-family rents are forecast to rise by 2.8 percent this year, while multifamily rents will grow by just 1.6 percent. Both these growth projections have been revised downward due to a wave of new construction that is increasing vacancies and balancing the rental market. The ongoing rise in inventory, although still below historical norms, is gradually making the market more balanced for both buyers and sellers.

Consumer behavior is also shifting, with would-be buyers demonstrating greater price sensitivity and a willingness to negotiate. Sellers, meanwhile, are being advised to price homes competitively and expect more standard negotiations than bidding wars. Industry leaders are responding by offering more incentives and adjusting marketing strategies to attract buyers in this cooler environment.

Compared to the previous year, home price growth has slowed from an annual rate of over 2 percent to much more modest gains, while the overall climate has shifted away from a hyper-competitive seller’s market to one of increasing equilibrium. As the summer progresses, experts suggest acting soon could be beneficial, as delayed purchases may come at a higher cost if rates do ease.