Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint.. I’m Nelson John and here are today’s top stories.

Markets, Modi, Gold & Grief: A Week That Shook India

Markets on Edge

It was a volatile week for Indian equities. With Israel-Iran tensions escalating and Brent crude spiking over 12%, investors dumped risky assets. The Nifty 50 closed down 1.14% at 24,718, while the Sensex slipped 1.30%. Market heavyweights like HDFC Bank, Reliance, and SBI led the decline.

Vinod Nair of Geojit said early optimism from US–China trade talks faded quickly. “Global risk-off sentiment took over. Safe havens like gold and US bonds rallied.”

5 Big Market Triggers This Week:

1. Israel-Iran conflict – with US and UK now militarily involved.

2. US Fed Meet (June 17–18) – No rate cut expected, but Powell’s tone will matter.

3. Crude Oil Surge – Could reignite inflation, hurt margins.

4. FPI Outflows – ₹4,812 crore pulled out in June so far.

5. Macro Data Watch – WPI, trade numbers, Eurozone CPI, and US jobless claims on radar.

Throw in the G7 summit in Canada and it’s a headline-heavy week ahead.

Air India Crash: A Nation Mourns

A high-level probe begins into the devastating Air India Flight AI-171 crash that killed 270 people, including former Gujarat CM Vijay Rupani. The Boeing 787 crashed just after takeoff from Ahmedabad on June 12. Only one passenger, Vishwashkumar Ramesh, survived.

A committee led by the Union Home Secretary has three months to recommend new aviation safety protocols. The second black box has been recovered, and DNA identification of victims is underway. Authorities praised the swift rescue response, but the nation now waits for answers.

Gold’s Glimmer Grows

Gold is closing in on the ₹1 lakh mark. On June 13, 24K gold hit ₹99,058 per 10g, buoyed by geopolitical fears, a soft dollar, and a weakening rupee.

Experts say don’t sit this out. Naveen Mathur of Anand Rathi recommends gold ETFs via SIPs as a smart hedge. Devang Shah from Axis MF says more upside is possible. Meanwhile, central banks are hoarding gold amid what some call “global de-dollarization”. Gold ETF assets are up 88% year-on-year, now near ₹59,000 crore.

Modi’s Global Pitch: India Means Business

At the India–Cyprus CEO Forum, PM Modi showcased India’s digital and economic might. “Fifty percent of the world’s digital transactions happen through India’s UPI,” he said, adding Cyprus may soon join India’s UPI network.

Fresh off a rare third-term win, Modi underlined India’s path to becoming the world’s third-largest economy, with over $100 billion in annual infrastructure investment.

The new Manufacturing Mission aims to turn India into a hub for electronics, semiconductors, biotech, and green tech. Maritime development, civil aviation, and startups are also key pillars. “Our 100,000+ startups sell solutions, not dreams,” Modi declared.

Savings Shrink, But Capex Soars

India’s gross domestic savings dropped to 30.7% of GDP in FY24, down from 32.2% in FY15. More worryingly, household savings fell to 18.1% of GDP, while household debt surged to 6.2%—almost double in a decade.

But there’s a silver lining: public capital expenditure is booming. FY25 capex hit ₹10.5 trillion, and FY26 is set to hit ₹15.5 trillion, a 17% jump. April alone saw 14.3% of the Centre’s budgeted capex already deployed.

Non-petroleum exports hit $374 billion in FY25, up 6%, led by electronics and pharma. Though FY26 may see a slight dip, rural demand looks solid—thanks to good agri prospects and rising wages. Urban sentiment, however, still lags.