In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack and Brent dive deep into the current market dynamics, exploring what they call the "Honey Badger" and "Zombie" market phenomena. With options volumes hitting record highs and realized volatility at basement levels, they analyze whether we're heading into a 2017-style low-volatility grind or if a volatility spike is imminent. The discussion covers everything from the latest options positioning data to the impact of zero-DTE trading on market behavior, providing valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.

• Market Rally Analysis - Comparing the current 4-month rally (25%) to post-COVID gains and why it feels more orderly than expected
• The "Honey Badger" Market - How the market has been buying every dip regardless of negative headlines like tariffs and policy uncertainty
• Options Volume Records - Breaking down the explosive growth in options trading and its impact on underlying stock flows
• Realized Volatility at Extremes - Why hitting 6% realized vol signals potential for major volatility expansion ahead
• The "Zombie" Market Theory - Drawing parallels to 2017's low-volatility environment and what it means for positioning
• Options Positioning Data - Current expiration analysis showing surprisingly average positioning despite market highs
• Tech Calls Opportunity - Why tech sector calls are at their cheapest relative levels in nearly a year
• Market Maker Hedging Flows - How dealer gamma positioning creates "strait jacket" effects on market movement
• Jackson Hole & Rate Cut Expectations - Upcoming catalysts and why the market is pricing in 91% chance of rate cuts
• New Tool Launch - Introduction of Flow Patrol, a daily PDF report tracking proprietary buy-side positioning data

• 00:00 - Introduction and market rally discussion
• 01:18 - Honey Badger market concept explanation
• 05:05 - Options volume impact on equity markets
• 10:05 - Hedging flows and market dynamics
• 12:00 - Historical options expiration patterns
• 16:00 - Positive gamma and "Chinese finger trap" markets
• 18:00 - Current expiration positioning analysis
• 24:00 - July predictions review and honey badger emergence
• 33:00 - The zombie market theory and realized volatility extremes
• 43:00 - Friday market action and volatility pricing analysis
• 47:00 - The "spasm" effect and correlation dynamics
• 52:00 - Forward-looking events and zombie market continuation
• 57:00 - Investment recommendations: puts and tech calls
• 59:00 - Bubble detection through options pricing
• 1:04:00 - Flow Patrol tool announcement and wrap-up

Markets are sitting at all-time highs, but under the surface, the options market is flashing signs of extreme positioning. In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma returns to break down the latest options expiration cycle and what it could mean for stocks going forward.

We discuss why record call buying, minimal hedging, and low implied volatility are creating a potentially fragile setup — and why upcoming events like CPI, VIX expiration, and tariffs could act as catalysts. Whether you're a long-term investor or a short-term trader, this conversation offers a deeper look at how positioning, dealer flows, and volatility pricing impact market behavior.

Topics covered include:

• Why extreme call skew signals crowding

• The importance of gamma, vanna, and charm

• How options flows can drive short-term market moves

• The "window of weakness" around OPEX and VIX expiration

• The role of tariffs, CPI, and macro catalysts in this setup

• Tactical implications for investors and traders

In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba dive deep into the dynamics shaping the current market regime, with a particular focus on the upcoming June OPEX, dealer positioning, volatility trends, and the surprising resilience of the S&P 500 amid geopolitical stress. They break down how options flows continue to dominate equity price action, why the market remains pinned despite negative news, and what might finally break the calm. With some of the largest options expirations in history on deck, this is a must-watch for anyone following volatility, hedging flows, and macro signals.

💡 Topics Covered:

Why volatility often contracts before OPEX and expands after

The significance of the June 2025 OPEX as potentially the largest ever

Dealer gamma, hedging flows, and what they signal about near-term volatility

Why implied vol is so low despite major geopolitical risk (e.g. Israel-Iran conflict)

The JP Morgan collar trade and its influence on the 5,900 level in the S&P

How zero-DTE options impact market stability and risk signaling

A potential regime shift: AI stocks, “taco trades,” and declining liquidity

What vol metrics like VIX, VVIX, and correlation are really saying

The hidden risk of overconfidence when markets ignore bad news

Breakdown of sector-specific volatility expectations (tech, energy, gold, Bitcoin)