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The Milk Check

The Milk Check

著者： T.C. Jacoby & Co. - Dairy Traders
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 Experienced dairy traders discuss current market trends that affect payments to dairy farmers.
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  • Dairy on a knife’s edge

    Dairy on a knife’s edge
    2025/06/14
    The U.S. dairy market is balanced on a knife’s edge, and everyone’s wondering what the summer will bring. In this week’s episode of The Milk Check, the Jacoby team convenes to dissect a dairy market that feels balanced – barely. From milk still trickling in past the flush to range-bound commodity prices, this episode covers the major trends shaping the back half of 2025. Cheese exports are keeping Class III in check Culling numbers are down as producers are keeping heifers longer Global butterfat advantage fading with tighter GDT spreads WPC, WPI demand stable, but new production capacity looms And what if prices fall off the edge? From trade risks to recession fears, the industry feels one light push from price chaos. Listen now for insights on margins, milk flows and market forces. The Jacoby Team: Diego Carvallo, Director, Dry Dairy Ingredient Trading Jacob Menge, Vice President of Risk Management & Trade Strategy Joe Maixner, Director of Sales, Dairy Ingredients Josh White, Vice President, Dairy Ingredients Mike Brown, Vice President of Dairy Market Intelligence Ted Jacoby III, CEO & President, Cheese, Butter & Dry Ingredients Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from TC Jacoby & Co., where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Hello everybody, and welcome to this month's version of The Milk Check podcast by TC Jacoby & Co. This week, we will have a classic market discussion. It is June 9th, so we're approaching the midpoint in the month of June 2025, and joining me today are Diego Carvallo, our Director of Dry Dairy Ingredients Trading. Jacob Menge is our vice president of risk management and trading strategy. Josh White, our Vice President of Dairy Ingredients. Mike Brown, our VP of Market Intelligence. Joe Maixner, our director of dairy ingredients and resident butter expert, is also there. I think we'll go ahead and start with milk. It's the middle of June. We're past the flush, but milk is probably a little bit heavier than we expected. Milk production has been up. We know what is going on. The dairy farmers are making money, and they're keeping cows. Their culling numbers are down, and so we're seeing cow numbers up, maybe a little bit surprisingly, given what we know about the heifer replacement numbers, which means they're keeping them for an extra lactation, that is keeping milk solids output maybe a little bit lower than we expected. But the solids are still up as well. So as a result, we're seeing milk still on the long side, not too much out of what is normal for this time of year, and I wouldn't be surprised as the weather in the upper Midwest starts to heat up, we start to see that milk production drop off a little bit and everything get a little bit tighter. We just haven't quite reached that high temperature yet. And so that's what we're seeing in milk. Jake, how does that translate into cheese? What are we seeing in the cheese market right now? Jacob Menge: It's funny, I think from the last time we had a market discussion to today, the message will be very similar, which is a lot of mixed signals on the cheese side. You can talk to certain people who say, Hey, our orders are way down. And then you might talk to somebody else, saying, Hey, our orders look pretty good, meaning the demand is there. I think it's a bit of a tale of two cities regarding how exposed you are to the export market. Exports have been the thing that has been keeping us afloat on the cheese side. I think domestically, we're not doing great. I would say that the prices that we've been seeing, this kind of upper 190s, mid to upper 190s, we've come off in the past week or two, but I think that mid to upper 190s did hurt demand on the export side. I think that's kind of where we're at. I would say good, not great. It just seems like we're going to be range bound a bit on the cheese mark...
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    19 分
  • Fire in the belly with Nate Zwald

    Fire in the belly with Nate Zwald
    2025/06/06
    Are you missing the biggest leap in dairy performance since the milking machine? From fertility breakthroughs to Holsteins with 4.5% components/5% fat, today’s cows are not your grandparents’ cows. In this episode of The Milk Check, we sit down with Nate Zwald, president and CEO of Progenco, to uncover how genetics is quietly reshaping the dairy industry. We tackle: Why genetic progress is accelerating and how that changes your herd strategy The rise of gender-selected genetics and the fall of dairy bull calves What makes a cow “better” — and how to breed more of them Why embryo technology could be the next big leap Listen now to the latest episode of The Milk Check to learn why cows engineered for fire in the belly could have improved lifespan, higher fertility, better fat composition and a better life. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We've got answers. Submit your questions below and we'd be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the show. Ask The Milk Check Special Guest: Nate Zwald, president and CEO of Progenco The Jacoby Team: Gus Jacoby, president, fluid dairy ingredients & dairy support Mike Brown, vice president of dairy market intelligence Ted Jacoby III, CEO & president, cheese, butter & dry ingredients Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Co., where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to the podcast. This month's version we have a special guest. We have Nate Zwald, former CEO of ABS Global and current president and CEO of Progenco. Joining us from the Jacoby team is Mike Brown, our VP of Market Intelligence, and Josh White, our VP of Dairy Ingredients. Nate, we've asked you on this podcast today because you're one of the foremost experts in bovine genetics out there, and we've been talking a lot about some of the changes in cow genetics and how it's been affecting our dairy markets. It's something we'd love to learn a lot more about. Why don't you start us off? Tell us a little about your background, and we'll go from there. Nate Zwald: Yeah, sure. Well, first of all, a pleasure to be here. I appreciate being asked and appreciate that introduction. I've had a long career in dairy genetics, starting with growing up on a farm and learning about dairy genetics from where it should be learned about, in a barn with my dad, thinking about milking cows and recognizing that the next generation of cows was going to be better than the current generation of cows. And that was a pretty fun thing to see firsthand. When you think about having a daughter of a cow out in the heifer yard, that's going to be better than the cow you're milking today. And I think that's the whole idea that we think about when we think about genetics is making better animals faster and trying always to make sure that the next generation is going to be more productive, healthier, happier, better for the farmers, better for the community, and better for the world and the next generation than the cows are in this generation. And we've seen tremendous progress through time in doing that compared to when I was a kid milking cows thinking, "Hey, I hope the heifer is going to be better than the cow herself." Because here we are, we've gone through so many technologies like selection for fitness, longevity, and fertility, and then we went through genomic technology that's had a huge impact on the industry. And then more recently, sex semen and the use of beef on dairy cows have all had substantial changes to the genetic progress curve compared to what seems like not that long ago from my standpoint, just milking cows in the barn with dad. Ted Jacoby III: So, currently, what are some of the major trends in genetics that the dairy producer is either utilizing or needs to be aware of, that are coming down the pike?
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    38 分
  • Tariff talk with Will Loux from the USDEC

    Tariff talk with Will Loux from the USDEC
    2025/05/09
    It’s May 8th. Do you know where your tariff is? When the tariff winds shift, the Jacoby team is there to help you steer your strategy. Tune in to the latest episode of The Milk Check with special guest Will Loux from the U.S. Dairy Export Council, as we cover: Tariff tensions – How will ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China impact dairy exports? Shifting trade strategies – How are global buyers adjusting to new tariff realities, and where does the U.S. stand in this complex landscape? Innovation and adaptation – What moves should U.S. producers and buyers make to adapt and thrive amidst tariff uncertainty? Don’t miss this conversation as we explore how tariffs are reshaping the dairy trade and what the future holds for U.S. dairy exports. Listen now to The Milk Check episode 77: Tariff talk with Will Loux from the U.S. Dairy Export Council Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from TC Jacoby & Company where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to this week's version of The Milk Check. It is May 1st, 2025. Once again, we're going to revisit the topic of tariffs and international trade. And as everybody knows, it's a shifting landscape. We have a special guest today, Will Loux from the US Dairy Export Council. Will is Senior Vice President of Global Economic Affairs. Will, thanks for joining us today. Will Loux: Thanks for having me, Ted. Good to be on. Ted Jacoby, III: We also have some of our usual suspects. Mike Brown, VP of Dairy Market Intelligence, Miguel Aragon, our director of Latin America Cheese Sales, and Josh White, our VP of Dairy Ingredients, and Tristan Sellentrup. Thanks for joining us, guys. So Will, we're going to start in the obvious place. What is DC's attitude about everything that's going on in tariffs, especially with regards to dairy? Do you see anything changing anytime soon? Is there anything in the works? What's the landscape as you see it? Will Loux: There's a lot of uncertainty. We were talking about several different types of tariffs that are effectively going on because we have our bilateral relationship with China where we have very high tariffs both for products coming into the US and China has very high tariffs for our dairy products going out, but we also have the 10% universal tariff. We have the steel and aluminum tariff. We have the USMCA question marks between Canada, Mexico, everything else. So right, now I would say there's about four different tariff balls being juggled all at once. And as far as where we're going in DC, I think that's anyone's guess where obviously within national milk and the Export Council, very hard at work these days. Very grateful. Jaime and Shauna and Tony Rice on our trade policy team get to live this every day while I get to check out, I guess, what's happening in the markets. Ted Jacoby, III: There's been rumors that China and the US are talking and they're trying to work out some things that could lower those tariffs. What are you hearing? Will Loux: Good question. Right now, at least what we've heard is there are talks, at least attempting to. I don't know how far along these talks have gotten. When we look at the tariffs between the US and China right now, there probably needs to be some sort of path to de-escalation, but this is also something that when we had the first round of retaliatory tariffs between US and China, that lasted 18 months. So I personally don't necessarily expect this to change overnight. That would surprise me. There are a lot of things that would surprise me these days in DC, but I would expect this to be in for the long haul. Whether it stays at 125%, I don't know, but at the same time finding an off ramp for what seems to be at least somewhat of a strategy towards decoupling the US and China in a lot of ways continues to be at least very much forefront and li...
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    39 分

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