Market & News Briefing (August 18, 2025)

In this episode, we cover the latest developments shaping global markets, focusing on FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics.

Key Topics:

• Russia–Ukraine War:
  • Trump-Putin summit made “great progress” but no ceasefire reached.
  • Zelensky in Washington for talks with Trump and European leaders.
  • EU stresses Russia cannot veto Ukraine’s EU or NATO path.
  • Putin signals willingness for compromise but insists “root causes” must be addressed.
• Middle East Update:
  • Israel strikes power station near Sanaa, Yemen.
  • Israel begins relocating Gaza residents with tents and shelters, condemned by Hamas as forced displacement.
• US-China Relations:
  • Trump claims Xi assured him China won’t invade Taiwan during his presidency.
• Tariffs & Trade:
  • Trump delays new tariffs on Chinese goods linked to Russian oil purchases.
  • US expands Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs by 407 product codes.
  • Trade tensions rise with India after US cancels talks scheduled for August 25.
  • EU pushes back against US efforts to weaken its digital rules, delaying joint trade statement.
• FX Market Moves:
  • Dollar steady as focus turns to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
  • Fed’s Daly signals multiple rate cuts possible this year.
  • EUR battles around 1.17, GBP rangebound, JPY weakens past 147.
  • Antipodeans supported by risk tone ahead of RBNZ decision.
  • PBoC sets yuan fixing stronger than expected.
• Commodities:
  • Crude oil little changed post-Trump-Putin talks.
  • Gold edges higher after two-way trade.
  • Copper gains modestly in Asia.

Takeaway:

Geopolitical tensions remain the key driver for markets, with traders watching Trump-Zelensky talks in Washington, upcoming European involvement, and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later this week.

Tariffs Extended, Gold Stays Tariff-Free, and FX Holds Steady Ahead of CPI

Episode Summary:
In today’s market briefing, we break down the key moves in FX, the latest on U.S.-China trade, fresh commodity updates, and the geopolitical developments to watch. The U.S. dollar index is steady ahead of CPI, the RBA delivers a widely expected rate cut, and major currency pairs are finding their footing. Washington and Beijing agree to extend the tariff suspension for another 90 days, with both sides taking reciprocal steps on trade restrictions. In commodities, gold holds ground after being spared from tariffs, copper prices tick higher, and Chile’s latest production data shows a mixed picture. Geopolitically, anticipation builds for the Trump-Putin meeting as Ukraine remains central to the conversation.

Key Topics Covered:

• FX Update: Dollar index stable, RBA cuts rates, euro back above 1.16, sterling bounce, yen near 148, yuan midpoint stronger than expected.
• Trade & Tariffs: U.S.-China extend tariff truce 90 days; China halts measures against U.S. entities; updated export controls; gold exempt from tariffs; chip sales to China restricted to older models with conditions.
• Commodities: Oil rangebound ahead of Trump-Putin talks; gold steady; copper higher on sentiment boost; Chile copper output data — Codelco up, Escondida and Collahuasi down.
• Geopolitics: Trump signals possible land swaps in Ukraine peace talks; Putin meeting seen as step toward ending the war; EU backs U.S. efforts while planning more sanctions and military aid.

Why It Matters:
These developments shape the global macro landscape, influencing currency moves, trade policy, and commodity markets. With U.S. CPI, the Trump-Putin meeting, and ongoing trade negotiations on the horizon, markets are bracing for the next round of shifts.

Listen Now to get the full rundown and stay ahead of the key drivers moving global markets today.