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The Conditional Release Program

The Conditional Release Program

著者： Jack the Insider and Joel Hill
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Welcome to The Conditional Release Program, a podcast that delves into the netherworld of cults, crims and con artists.

Who would have thought a spicy chest cough would turn everyone so completely mad?

Our weekly show covers the conspiracy theorists that created a 'shadow pandemic' of political idiocy and violent ideation within the fringe of politics.

From time to time we get our hands even dirtier with true crime deep dives. Jack is a seasoned expert in the true crime genre, having written and spoken extensively about Roger Rogerson, Stan 'the man' Smith and, of course, the Fine Cotton Fiasco. In various episodes he guides us through the dark underbelly of Australian crime in his trademark storytelling style.

The world is getting weird and we are getting weird with it. Let's watch as democracy crumbles into a smouldering heap - and take note of the kids carrying the matches and the metho.

Hosted by Jack the Insider and Joel Hill with an occasional rotation of guests that generally share our distaste toward the lunatic fringe.

All rights reserved. 政治・政府 政治学 社会科学 科学
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  • The Two Jacks - Episode 113 - Sussssssan Ley is Ley-der

    The Two Jacks - Episode 113 - Sussssssan Ley is Ley-der
    2025/05/13

    In this episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack tackle the latest in Australian politics, global media developments, and international affairs. It's a fast-paced discussion of the political landscape, leadership upheavals, cabinet shakeups, pressing policies, and more. Tune in for sharp observations and witty takes!

    Key Topics Covered

    1. Australian Politics
    • The Liberal Party's election of a new leader, Suzanne ("Sussan") Ley.
    • A deep dive into her unconventional numerology backstory.
    • Her leadership votes (29–25) as she edges out Angus Taylor.
    • Ted O’Brien as deputy leader – his Sunshine Coast seat, ties to Taiwan, and study in Asia.
    • The Nationals' direction and challenges: David Littleproud retains leadership while debates over net-zero emissions targets continue.
    • The tension between the Coalition's philosophical stance on nuclear energy and policy realignment.
    1. Labor's New Cabinet
    • The fallout of Anthony Albanese’s factional compromises in reshuffling the cabinet.
    • The exclusion of Ed Husic and Mark Dreyfuß sparks conversations about faction-driven decisions.
    • The introduction of “special envoys” within the ministry – quirky or functional?
    • Reflections on the dynamics between faction leaders and Prime Minister Albanese.
    1. Post-Referendum Delusions
    • Analysis of the repercussions of the Voice referendum loss.
    • How the Coalition misread their referendum win as momentum for taking government.
    • The dangers of hubris in both major Australian political parties.
    1. Gaza Crisis and Morality in Politics
    • A reflective discussion on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and its global implications.
    1. Global Geopolitics
    • Putin’s stance following European leaders’ ultimatum.
    • U.S. tariffs on China: economic realities and diplomatic maneuvers.
    • Commentary on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict with Donald Trump’s threats of sanctions.
    1. Germany’s Rearmament and Political Landscape
    • The challenges around Germany’s massive military investment and reshaped leadership under conservative Frederick Merz.
    • The rise of far-right party AFD and its broader European implications.
    1. Immigration in Focus
    • The political shift in the U.K. as Sir Keir Starmer changes his stance on immigration policies.
    • Lessons from Australian immigration history and reflections on Europe’s response.
    1. Sport, Pop Culture & More
    • Cricket: Tribute to Virat Kohli as he retires from Test cricket. His stats, legacy, and influence on Indian cricket.
    • AFL: A breakdown of the tight matches, umpiring controversies, and the top 8 ladder. Should draws remain?
    • NRL: Celebrating Latrell Mitchell’s game-winning 50-meter field goal and the rise of unexpected teams like the NZ Warriors.
    • IPL and Security Concerns: Adjustments to the tournament amidst heightened conflict.
    • Nostalgia-filled commentary on Pope Leo XIV (the American Chicagoan Pope) and his potential love for baseball’s Chicago White Sox.
    1. Humor & Extras
    • Stories of televangelist Jim Bakker’s plea for funds and Nigerian email scam jokes rounded out with trademark Two Jacks humor.

    Listener Takeaways

    • The Two Jacks dissect Australian media with insider insight, offering a combination of timely analysis and a bit of much-needed levity on heavy topics.
    • From the cricket pitch to political caucuses, this episode highlights the intersection of power, performance, and policy.

    Links/Resources

    • Follow Jack the Insider on Twitter: @JackTheInsider
    • Subscribe to Hong Kong Jack’s Substack: HongKongJack.Substack.com

    Contact The Two Jacks

    Have feedback, questions, or topics you’d like covered in a future episode? Reach out:

    • Email: The Two Jacks

    Join us for Episode 113 of The Two Jacks for bold takes, sharp critiques, and a few laughs along the way!
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    1 時間 28 分
  • Episode 185 - Post 2025 Federal Election Wrap

    Episode 185 - Post 2025 Federal Election Wrap
    2025/05/07
    MORE UNINTENTIONALLY FUNNY AI SLOP SHOWNOTES. Peter Hoistead? Thanks Gemini. Thanks listeners. We love you. Buy CBCo it's excellent beer. The Conditional Release Program - Episode 185: Federal Election 2025 Post-SpecialHosts: Joel Hill & Jack the Insider (Peter Hoistead)Overall Theme: A deep dive into the results and implications of the 2025 Australian Federal Election, focusing on Labor's historic victory, the Coalition's catastrophic loss, and the performance of minor parties and independents.Key Segments & Talking Points:(Part 1 - Approximate Timestamps based on original transcript, subject to adjustment)[00:00:00 - 00:01:23] Introduction & Election OverviewJoel laments being banned from betting on the election, particularly Labor's strong odds.Jack notes Joel would have won significantly, especially on Labor at $2.60.Historic Labor Win: Anthony "Albo" Albanese leads Labor to a significant victory.Libs sent into an "existential crisis."Albo is the first PM to be re-elected since John Howard in 2004.Largest Labor victory on a two-party preferred basis since John Curtin in 1943 (votes still being counted).Crucial Stat: The Albanese government is the only first-term government to have a swing towards it in Australian political history.[00:01:23 - 00:03:38] Significance of the Swing to LaborPrevious first-term governments (Howard '98, Hawke '84, Fraser '77, Whitlam '74, Menzies) all had swings against them when seeking a second term.Albo's government achieved an approximate 4% swing towards it (votes still being counted).Discussion points: Where it went right for Labor, and wrong for the Coalition, Greens, and Teals.Far-right "Cookers" performed terribly. Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FONY) might see minor representation.[00:03:38 - 00:05:11] Patreon & Sponsor Shout-outsReminder to support the podcast on Patreon: www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram (for as little as $5/month).CB Co. Beer: Praised for their IPA and new Hazy XPA. Competition to win $100,000. Use code CRP10 for 10% off at cbco.beer.[00:05:11 - 00:08:52] Polling Inaccuracies & Liberal OptimismReiteration of the ~4% swing to Labor.Comparison of final poll predictions vs. actual results:Freshwater: Labor 51.5% (was Liberal pollster, told Libs they were close).Newspoll: 52.5% (Labor used their private polling).Essential: 53.5%.YouGov: 52.2% - 52.9%.Polling companies significantly underestimated Labor's vote, especially those advising the Coalition.The misplaced optimism at Liberal Party HQ on election night.[00:08:52 - 00:16:00] Specific Seat Results & Labor GainsGilmore (NSW South Coast): Fiona Phillips (Labor) won 55-45 (3-4% swing to her), despite Andrew Constance (Liberal) being the favourite.Bennelong (Howard's old seat): Jeremy Laxail (Labor) won 59-41 against Scott Young (problematic Liberal candidate), a 10% swing to Labor.Parramatta: Andrew Charlton (Labor) won 62-38 (was 53.47 in 2022).Aston (Victoria): Labor won in a historic by-election previously, now a 4% swing to the Labor candidate, winning 53-47.Boothby (SA): Louise Miller-Frost (Labor) achieved an 8% swing, holding the seat 61-39.Tangney (WA): Sam Lim (Labor, ex-cop & dolphin trainer) secured a 3% swing, now 56-44. Large Bhutanese diaspora noted.Leichhardt (FNQ): Labor's Matt Smith won 57-43 after Warren Entsch (LNP) retired (10% swing).Hunter (NSW): Dan Repiccioli (Labor) re-elected with 44% primary vote (5% swing on primary). Fended off Nats and One Nation (Stuart Bonds' inflated vote claims by "One Australia" on X).[00:16:00 - 00:18:49] Diversifying Parliament & Women in PoliticsPraise for non-lawyer backgrounds in Parliament (e.g., Dan Repiccioli, Sam Lim).Critique of the typical lawyer/staffer/union pathway.Labor's success in diversifying candidate backgrounds and increasing female representation.Liberals struggling with female representation despite some efforts. Discussion of potential quotas in the Liberal party and the backlash it would cause.Margaret Thatcher quote: "If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman."[00:18:49 - 00:27:26] The Teals: Mixed Results & ChallengesInitial appearance of a Teal "romp" on election night.Bradfield (NSW North Shore): Teal Nicolette Boele (Burle/Bola) behind Liberal Giselle Kaptarian by 178 votes (updated during recording).Goldstein (VIC): Tim Wilson (Liberal) leading Zoe Daniel (Teal) by 925 votes. Wilson is likely back. Joel comments on Wilson's IPA association vs. his "gay, wet, mediocre, progressive side." Jack notes Wilson often highlights his sexuality.Jim Chalmers' quip about Tim Wilson: "Popular for all those who haven't met him."Kooyong (VIC): Monique Ryan (Teal) leading by 1002 votes (97,000 counted, ~8,000 postals to go). Redistribution added parts of Toorak, making it harder for Ryan.Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer: "Trust fund renter" controversy, owns multiple properties, London bolthole.Corflute wars in Kooyong: Hamer campaign's excessive use of ...
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    2 時間 8 分
  • The Two Jacks - Episode 112 - Australian Election Post-Mortem, Canadian Stunner & Trump's Papal Dreams

    The Two Jacks - Episode 112 - Australian Election Post-Mortem, Canadian Stunner & Trump's Papal Dreams
    2025/05/07
    More AI notes for y'all. They're not bad! Episode Link: Find this and other episodes at The Conditional Release Program on RedCircle.Recorded: May 5, 2025 (two days after the Australian Federal Election)Hosts: Jack the Insider & Hong Kong JackIn this episode, The Two Jacks dissect the stunning Australian federal election results, explore a surprising political turnaround in Canada, ponder the next Pope, and touch on global political shifts from the UK to Germany, and the latest from Trump's America.(00:00:00) Introduction & Australian Election: An Orderly Affair Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack kick off by praising the smooth and festive nature of the Australian federal election, highlighting the efficiency of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) and the beloved "democracy sausage."(00:02:21) The Pre-Poll Phenomenon A discussion on the increasing trend of pre-polling, with over half of Australians casting their vote before election day. The hosts debate the merits of shortening the pre-polling period, with Hong Kong Jack lamenting the decline of traditional Saturday voting.(00:06:06) Betting Blunders & Historic Results Labor's remarkable journey from $15 outsiders to $1.07 unbackable favourites to form government is reviewed. The episode highlights key historical markers:Anthony Albanese: The first Prime Minister re-elected since 2004.A significant Labor victory, with Albanese leading the first government in Australian political history to increase its majority in a second term.(00:09:17) Seat Swings, Mea Culpas & The Greens' Tumble The hosts reflect on their pre-election predictions against the reality of significant swings to Labor (e.g., a 10% swing in Bennelong). Labor is projected to win around 90 seats.The Greens: A tough election, with leader Adam Bandt likely to lose his seat in Melbourne. Zoe Daniel (Teal) is also in a precarious position in Goldstein. The Greens may lose Ryan back to the Liberals and potentially face no representation in the House of Representatives.(00:13:38) A UK Perspective & Labor's Resurgence Hong Kong Jack shares insights from the UK, where observers noted Labor's landslide and the "leaderless, rudderless, pointless" state of the Coalition. This challenges the narrative that incumbents always lose, citing recent Canadian and Australian results.(00:16:27) Liberal Campaign Catastrophe: A "Don't Do This" Case Study A deep dive into the Liberal Party's "dreadful campaign," marked by:The ill-conceived work-from-home policy, poorly communicated by Senator Jane Hume and lacking consultation.A string of policy backflips and poorly planned announcements (e.g., fuel excise cut, Melbourne airport rail funding announced at a winery).Peter Dutton has accepted responsibility for the campaign's failures.(00:22:46) Trump's Take & The Muted MAGA Effect Donald Trump's reaction to the Australian election (congratulating "Albert" while feigning ignorance of Dutton) is discussed. The hosts agree that MAGA influence was minimal, with Albanese's message of "kindness is not weakness" resonating more strongly.(00:25:13) The Liberal Party's Existential Crossroads A critical analysis of the Liberal Party's future, having lost traditional heartland seats and failed to broaden its appeal beyond an aging demographic.The danger of vacating the political centre and the flawed strategy of chasing a new "working-class" constituency.Hong Kong Jack draws parallels to Labor's wilderness years (1977, 1996), emphasizing the need for honest self-reflection for any chance of recovery.Labor's structural advantages: benefiting from Green preferences and a more unified progressive base compared to a fragmented right-wing, further diluted by entities like Clive Palmer's party.(00:39:58) Senate Snapshot: Stability Prevails An overview of the projected Senate makeup across the states:NSW & VIC: Likely Labor 3, Liberals 2, Greens 1.QLD: Labor 2, Libs 2, Greens 1, with One Nation's Malcolm Roberts likely re-elected.TAS: Jacqui Lambie expected to return.ACT: Independent David Pocock secures his quota alongside a Labor senator.Overall, the Senate composition is unlikely to see dramatic changes. David Pocock is commended for his diligent work.(00:42:25) Who Will Lead the Liberals? A Party in Search of Direction Speculation on the future leadership of the Liberal Party, with few obvious candidates emerging from a depleted frontbench. Dan Tehan is mentioned as a possible moderate caretaker, though the path back to government looks long and arduous.(00:45:58) Albanese: The New "Labor God" & Chalmers' Contribution Anthony Albanese is lauded for his historic achievement, with Jim Chalmers highlighted as a key performer and media operator for Labor, despite Hong Kong Jack's gentle ribbing about his lengthy essays.(00:48:56) Canadian Politics Upended: Liberals' Shock Comeback A look at the Canadian election, where the Liberals achieved a stunning turnaround, with Conservative leader Pierre ...
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    1 時間 35 分

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