For much of the past two years, we've been told to expect a slimmer, more austere Belt and Road under the new "Small Yet Beautiful" mantra. The days of Chinese mega deals across the Global South were over... or so we thought.

Turns out that Chinese firms, largely from the private sector, are continuing to invest heavily in energy, mining, and construction projects in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, according to new data from Australia’s Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center in Beijing.

Total BRI engagement in the first half of 2025 topped $123 billion, a new record that surpassed the total for last year.

Christoph Nedopil, lead author of the new report, joins Eric to explain what's driving the surge in Chinese investment and construction contracts.

SHOW NOTES:

• Griffith University: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025 H1 b by Christoph Nedopil
• Financial Times: China’s Belt and Road investment and construction activity hits record by Joe Leahy

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Listen in on many of the foreign policy discussions about Vietnam that take place at think tanks and government seminars in Washington, D.C., and you'll hear this sense of optimism that "Hanoi is on our side." They see Vietnam's historical suspicions of China and the country's ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea as key indicators that Hanoi will eventually join a U.S.-led coalition to counter China.

Those presumptions, however, are wrong, according to Khang Vu, a leading Vietnamese political scientist and visiting scholar at Boston College. Khang joins Eric to explain why the U.S. is overestimating its military and trade leverage with Vietnam.

SHOW NOTES:

• The Diplomat: Why Vietnam Will Not Balance Against China by Khang Vu
• The Diplomat: Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Change the Trajectory of Vietnam’s Foreign Policy by Khang Vu
• The Diplomat: With China Visit, Vietnam’s To Lam Reinforces Bilateral Political Trust by Khang Vu

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There was widespread disappointment in Iran that China didn't do more to help Tehran during the recent 12-day war with Israel and the United States. Beijing, for its part, offered robust rhetorical and moral support, but little else.

The calculus for Chinese policymakers is that Iran just isn't as strategically important to its foreign policy as other countries in the region, namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and a leading expert on Sino-Persian Gulf relations, joins Eric to discuss his new book that explains China's rapidly expanding portfolio of interests in the region and why Iran, in particular, is not among Beijing's top priorities.

SHOW NOTES:

• Amazon.com: Building the Belt and Road Initiative in the Arab World: China's Middle East Math by Jonathan Fulton
• China-MENA Newsletter: The myth of China's leverage in Iran by Jonathan Fulton
• Bloomberg: Israel Urges China to Pressure Iran to Rein In Nuclear Ambitions

JOIN THE DISCUSSION:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

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YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

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FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC:
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Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth