How can knowing a market’s fundamentals help investors better understand the real risk behind rising property prices?

In this episode, data-driven real estate analyst Stefan Tsvetkov breaks down the relationship between real estate fundamentals and market overvaluation. He explains how factors like income, housing supply, and regression-based forecasting models help reveal where markets may be overheated. Drawing on lessons from the global financial crisis and updated metrics through 2021, Stefan explains how seemingly booming markets may carry hidden downside risk—and why timing corrections is nearly impossible. With county- and state-level insights, this episode is a valuable guide for any investor who wants to gauge risk more accurately and avoid misleading hype.

[00:01 - 06:00] Fundamentals Don't Lie

• How price-to-income ratios reveal overvaluation risk
• Why state-level data shows stronger correlation than county-level analysis
• The significance of 83–87% correlation during the 2008 crisis

[06:01 - 12:00] Real Estate vs. Stock Market Logic

• How real estate is easier to value than equities
• Why appraisals and valuation models make market inefficiencies more visible
• The importance of knowing whether your asset is fairly valued

[12:01 - 18:00] Warning Signs from Western States

• Why western states showed early signs of overvaluation in 2021
• How wage growth lagged behind real estate price growth
• The need to balance asset appreciation with rising downside risk

[18:01 - 24:00] Forecasting vs. Fundamentals

• Why price forecasting and market valuation are not the same
• How income-based models don’t need interest rate adjustment
• The value of long-term trends in identifying safe markets

[24:01 - 28:11] Where to Look Now

• Why undervalued states like Indiana and Kentucky might offer better downside protection
• The importance of mixed-method analysis for forecasting and risk
• How to approach hot markets like Boise and Phoenix with caution

Connect with Stefan:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/stefantsvetkov

Key Quotes:

“Real estate is a fundamental asset. If prices deviate from fundamentals, corrections follow.” - Stefan Tsvetkov

“People say real estate is hyper-local, and that's true. But it's also harder to predict at the hyper-local level.” - Stefan Tsvetkov

Visit sponsorcloud.io/contact today and unlock $2,000 of free services exclusively for REI Rocks community members! Get automated syndication and investor relationship management tools to save time and money. Mention your part of the REI Rocks community for exclusive offers. Help make affordable, low-cost education summits possible. Check out Sponsor Cloud today!

Why does using just price data often outperform traditional market fundamentals in predicting real estate trends?

In this episode, financial engineer and real estate investor Stefan Tsvetkov explains why relying on price trends can be more accurate than using population, income, or job growth to forecast appreciation. Drawing from years of data modeling and firsthand investment experience, Stefan breaks down the mechanics of momentum in real estate markets and introduces tools for predicting downside risk. He also shares lessons from the 2008 crash to highlight the risks of ignoring valuation. This is a numbers-based look at smarter, leaner ways to evaluate and choose real estate markets.

[00:01 - 06:00] The Case for Price Over Fundamentals

• How price data leads to fewer forecasting errors.
• Why adding more variables increases uncertainty.
• The importance of simplifying your analysis.

[06:01 - 12:43] Momentum in Real Estate

• How last year’s prices help predict this year’s.
• Why many markets show strong trend patterns.
• The significance of autocorrelation in market forecasting.

[12:44 - 18:51] Forecasting with Models

• How tools like ETS help spot short-term trends.
• Why 2021 broke from historical patterns.
• The need to update models as trends shift.

[18:52 - 24:37] Population Growth vs. Price Performance

• Why population explains only part of the trend.
• How combining metrics offers a fuller view.
• The importance of watching overvalued markets.

[24:38 - 27:44] Measuring Downside Risk

• How past crashes linked to overvaluation.
• Why fundamental misalignment increases risk.
• The importance of tracking valuation gaps.

Connect with Stefan:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/stefantsvetkov

Key Quotes:

"You commit a five times bigger error trying to model future appreciation with fundamentals than if you just look at prices alone." - Stefan Tsvetkov

"Real estate is a fundamental asset. When prices deviate far from fundamentals, downside risk increases significantly." - Stefan Tsvetkov

Visit sponsorcloud.io/contact today and unlock $2,000 of free services exclusively for REI Rocks community members! Get automated syndication and investor relationship management tools to save time and money. Mention your part of the REI Rocks community for exclusive offers. Help make affordable, low-cost education summits possible. Check out Sponsor Cloud today!

What happens when inflation outpaces income, and how can real estate investors adapt before the breaking point hits?

In this thought-provoking episode, Angel welcomes Rich Neuharth and Moses Lucero to explore the often-overlooked emotional and strategic aspects of underwriting in a volatile economic landscape. As inflation surges and affordability concerns loom, this conversation unpacks how mindset, data, and creativity intertwine when making investment decisions. Rich and Moses open up about their struggles with rejection, finding the right mentors, and reframing failure as a learning opportunity.

[00:01 - 04:00] When Prices Outpace Paychecks

• Why inflation is increasingly unsustainable for the average household.
• The importance of anticipating economic tipping points when underwriting deals.
• How investors might need to prepare for a shift toward shared housing and resource consolidation.

[04:01 - 08:46] Rents, Rates, and Reckonings

• What rent control discussions in red states signal about the changing political landscape.
• How rising interest rates historically trigger regulatory intervention and potential recessions.
• The significance of learning from past economic cycles like the Great Depression and 2008 crisis.

[08:47 - 12:13] When Numbers Feel Like a Wall

• Why financial literacy barriers often stem from mindset blocks, not ability.
• The need to recognize and confront personal narratives that limit learning.
• How connection with the right teacher can reignite passion for difficult topics.

[12:14 - 16:49] Resets, Rejections, and Reality Checks

• How to emotionally recover from rejection and continue calling, underwriting, or analyzing deals.
• The importance of taking a break to reset instead of internalizing repeated failure.
• Why even the most seasoned professionals question their worth—and how to move past it.

[16:20 - 20:56] Leveling Up Through Curiosity and Collaboration

• How underwriters "gear up" by finding hidden value in overlooked properties.
• Why passion, community, and creativity are crucial tools for value investors.
• The significance of recognizing shared struggles, even when operating in different lanes of a business.

Connect with Rich:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/realmindsetrich

Connect with Moses:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/moses-lucero-9026b220b/

Key Quotes:

“It's not how much you are learning, it's about who you're learning it from.” - Moses Lucero

“You’re going to die and get kicked off the horse more times than you’re gonna win—but let me tell you, the wins are real good.” - Rich Neuharth

Visit sponsorcloud.io/contact today and unlock $2,000 of free services exclusively for REI Rocks community members! Get automated syndication and investor relationship management tools to save time and money. Mention your part of the REI Rocks community for exclusive offers. Help make affordable, low-cost education summits possible. Check out Sponsor Cloud today!