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  • Another day, another housing promise from Ford Nation

    Another day, another housing promise from Ford Nation
    2025/05/15
    On the Ledge – May 15, 2025

    Host: Dave Trafford
    Guests: Keith Leslie, John Wright, Tim Hudak (Kathleen Wynne sent regrets)

    In this episode of On the Ledge, Dave Trafford, Keith Leslie, John Wright, and Tim Hudak kick things off talking about the OTR Spring Fling at Queen's Park!

    Then they unpack Ontario’s budget day, dive into the affordability crisis, and explore how interprovincial cooperation and infrastructure expansion are key to Canada’s economic resilience.
    With Kathleen Wynne away, the panel examines the collegiality that once defined Queen’s Park and the real impacts of policy on housing, generational inequality, and labour shortages.

    They reflect on the provincial and federal approach to accelerating housing builds, and the political and policy implications of Premier Doug Ford’s relationship with Prime Minister Mark Carney.

    The group discusses how trade barriers, infrastructure, and environmental protections are converging in a time of economic uncertainty and how Canada’s unity is being put to the test—and perhaps strengthened—by global and domestic pressures.

    00:00 – Introduction & Spring Fling Recap
    Dave opens the show with a joke about the Leafs and introduces the panel. Keith Leslie shares behind-the-scenes impressions of the Spring Fling at Queen’s Park and the podcast’s popularity among political insiders.

    05:55 – Budget Day Preview & Ford Government’s Housing Push**
    As Ontario’s budget drops later that day, the group discusses anticipated housing legislation and the credibility of the Ford government’s new approach. Tim Hudak defends Minister Rob Flack’s leadership potential in housing.

    13:20 – Cost of Living & Young Buyers Left Behind
    The panel explores how housing unaffordability is affecting young Ontarians, from down payment challenges to increasing mortgage rates. John Wright and Keith Leslie highlight systemic barriers to ownership for millennials and Gen Z.

    25:22 – Labour Shortages & Ontario’s Condo Market Slump
    Discussion shifts to labour market issues and how immigration policies are mismatched with skilled trades demand. Keith and John discuss condo oversupply and shrinking urban appeal post-pandemic.

    33:51 – Budget Promises: Gas Tax Cuts, Toll Relief & Trump Tariff FalloutDoug Ford’s budget announcements—including permanent gas tax cuts and 407 toll relief—are analyzed. Keith explains how these choices reflect affordability politics amid economic threats from Trump’s tariff agenda.

    42:03 – Interprovincial Trade, Unity, and Carney’s Nation-Building Vision
    The show pivots to national issues. Ford and Wab Kinew’s agreement on trade cooperation is discussed, and the panel praises Mark Carney’s leadership style and diplomatic success in Washington.

    52:03 – Infrastructure, Indigenous Partnerships & Economic Reconciliation**
    The hosts discuss the importance of Indigenous equity and decision-making in large infrastructure projects like the Ring of Fire and Nunavut hydro link. Kathleen Wynne stresses the need for government-to-government engagement.

    1:05:00 – Final Thoughts: Erskine-Smith’s Exit & Budget Expectations
    Closing thoughts cover Nate Erskine-Smith’s public complaints after being dropped from cabinet, and what voters will expect from Ontario’s long-term affordability strategy.
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    1 時間 11 分
  • Ford the Unifier - Premiers, Pipelines, and the Push for One Market

    Ford the Unifier - Premiers, Pipelines, and the Push for One Market
    2025/05/09
    On the Ledge -- May 8, 2025

    Host: Dave Trafford

    Guests: Kathleen Wynne (former Premier of Ontario), John Wright (founding pollster at On the Ledge), Keith Leslie (journalist, joining from Nova Scotia)
    Absent: Tim Hudak (former PC leader, expected back next week)

    This episode of On the Ledge revisits last week's fiery discussion on judicial independence and fairness in Canada's legal system, sparked by contrasting views on elected judges and bail reform. The panel expands the conversation into a wide-ranging discussion on infrastructure, Indigenous partnerships, interprovincial trade, and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s growing role as a unifier on the national stage. Doug Ford’s emerging “Captain Canada” persona, new federal-provincial dynamics, and the urgency of equitable economic development also take center stage. Chapters
    • 00:00 – Introduction
      Dave Trafford recaps listener reaction to last week’s “vigorous” episode and sets the table for a continued conversation on courts, politics, and policy.
    • 02:15 – Elected Judges, Bail Reform & Judicial Backlogs
      The panel debates whether Canada’s legal system is broken, the Ford government’s appeal of the Toronto bike lane decision, and the recent judicial appointments.
    • 13:36 – Autism Supports & Political Neglect
      Kathleen Wynne passionately defends her government’s investments in autism services and critiques the Ford government's mismanagement of the file.
    • 16:44 – Mark Carney in Washington & Premiers Meeting
      The group analyzes Carney’s Oval Office meeting with Trump, Ford’s supportive role, and the symbolic shift in federal leadership.
    • 33:16 – Pipelines, Interprovincial Trade, and the July 1 Deadline
      Doug Ford’s push to remove internal trade barriers is explored, alongside provincial MOUs, environmental regulations, and infrastructure ambition.
    • 43:17 – Ring of Fire, Indigenous Equity & Infrastructure Readiness
      Focus shifts to northern development, highlighting the need for Indigenous equity, smarter permitting, and climate-resilient investments.
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    1 時間 7 分
  • Rants, Rifts, and Rulings- Ford’s Fury and Inside the Conservative Civil War

    Rants, Rifts, and Rulings- Ford’s Fury and Inside the Conservative Civil War
    2025/05/01
    On the Ledge – May 1, 2025

    Host: Dave Trafford Guests: Kathleen Wynne, Tim Hudak, John Wright

    Episode Summary:
    In this week's fiery edition of On the Ledge, host Dave Trafford is joined by Kathleen Wynne, Tim Hudak, and John Wright to unpack a turbulent week in Canadian conservative politics.

    The panel dissects the fallout from the recent federal election, including Jamil Jivani’s scathing remarks about Doug Ford, rising tensions between provincial and federal Conservatives, and speculation about Pierre Poilievre’s future as leader.

    The discussion pivots to Premier Ford’s explosive rant about the judiciary, prompting a lively debate over judicial independence, policy-making, and political accountability.

    As Ontario barrels toward a new political season, the hosts reflect on the role of pragmatism, governance, and due process in a rapidly polarizing landscape.

    Key Takeaways:
    • Jamil Jivani’s blistering critique of Doug Ford sparked fresh infighting between federal and provincial Conservatives.
    • Kathleen Wynne called the tensions “more personal than strategic,” highlighting a leadership vacuum and raw post-election emotions.
    • Tim Hudak framed Ford’s popularity as a national Conservative asset, cautioning against picking fights with Ontario’s three-time majority Premier.
    • The panel debated Pierre Poilievre’s silence and whether he can unify the party or is losing control of the narrative.
    • Premier Ford’s controversial rant about “electing judges” led to sharp critique from Wynne and Wright, who defended judicial independence.
    • John Wright stressed the importance of due process, warning that undermining judicial trust sets a dangerous precedent.
    • Melissa Lantsman was identified as a potential interim leader or strong voice for the Conservatives in the House if Poilievre delays running.
    • The group agreed that bigger national issues—like economic downturns and the Carney government’s next moves—will soon eclipse the Conservative family feud.
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    1 時間
  • Election Fallout - Carney’s Challenges, Poilievre’s Future, and the NDP Collapse

    Election Fallout - Carney’s Challenges, Poilievre’s Future, and the NDP Collapse
    2025/04/29
    On the Ledge – Special Election Edition

    Host: Dave Trafford
    Guests: Keith Leslie, Kathleen Wynne, Tim Hudak, John Wright

    Summary:
    In this special post-election edition of On the Ledge, Dave Trafford convenes the panel to break down the federal election results.

    Keith Leslie, Kathleen Wynne, Tim Hudak, and John Wright dive into what the Liberal minority outcome means for the country, why polling predictions missed key shifts, and how the ground game, turnout, and last-minute voter motivations shaped the final result.

    They also examine the collapse of the NDP, the future of Pierre Poilievre’s leadership after losing his seat, and the challenges facing Prime Minister Mark Carney as he seeks to unify a fractured Parliament and prepare for an unpredictable Trump-led U.S.

    Key Takeaways:
    • Poll Accuracy & Aggregators: John Wright defends pollsters but criticizes seat projection aggregators for inaccuracies that fueled public distrust.
    • High Voter Turnout: Motivated by stark party contrasts and affordability concerns, Canadians turned out in record numbers.
    • NDP Collapse: The New Democrats suffered devastating losses, notably in Hamilton and Northern Ontario, fueling leadership questions.
    • Pierre Poilievre's Future: Despite leading the Conservatives to strong seat gains, losing his own riding could trigger leadership challenges.
    • Carney’s Challenges: The new PM must rebuild Western trust, advance critical infrastructure projects, and present a fresh cabinet distinct from Trudeau’s.
    • Minority Government Dynamics: Carney will rely heavily on NDP cooperation to survive, though few are eager for another election soon.
    • Trump Factor: While the Trump threat remains, voters increasingly focused on domestic issues like affordability in the final campaign days.
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    49 分
  • The NDP collapse killed Poilievre's PM hopes

    The NDP collapse killed Poilievre's PM hopes
    2025/04/25
    Boomer Turnout, Betting Markets, and a Liberal Path to Victory

    On the Ledge – April 24, 2025

    Host: Dave Trafford
    Guests: Kathleen Wynne, John Wright, Keith Leslie, Amanda Galbraith (filling in for Tim Hudak)

    In this edition of On the Ledge, Dave Trafford and the panel dig into the final days of the federal campaign. With polling margins narrowing, the conversation pivots to the strategic implications of the NDP collapse, the Conservatives’ stalled momentum, and whether Mark Carney’s Liberals can secure a fourth term.

    Amanda Galbraith delivers sharp insight on why the NDP’s decline may have done more to harm Pierre Poilievre’s chances than help.

    The panel also critiques political ad strategies, speculates on shifting voter coalitions, and debates whether the electorate is still moved by messages of hope or just fed up.

    In provincial politics, the crew discusses subway procurement, sole-sourcing, and the Ford government's growing tensions with school boards.

    Key Takeaways:
    • Polling Plateau: Despite breathless media reports, the polls remain largely unchanged; regional shifts are minimal and final telephone-based polls may provide clearer trends (John Wright).
    • NDP's Collapse: Amanda Galbraith argues the NDP's self-inflicted decline undermines the Conservatives' vote-splitting advantage and may cost Poilievre a path to power.
    • Ad Wars and Missed Messages: The panel criticizes a Conservative ad targeting older male voters, suggesting it misses the emotional connection needed in a campaign’s final stretch.
    • Boomer vs. Youth Turnout: Young conservative-leaning men may stay home, while reliable boomer voters help buoy Liberal support.
    • Online Betting Markets: Unofficial political betting lines show rising odds for a Liberal majority — a surprising twist not yet echoed in public polling.
    • Transit and Tariffs: Ford’s proposal to sole-source subway cars in Thunder Bay sparks debate over cost control and trade protectionism.
    • School Board Frustration: The panel anticipates a public appetite for stronger oversight and accountability in Ontario’s school boards amid financial controversies.
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    57 分
  • Does the Therme Ontario Place Development pass the sniff test?

    Does the Therme Ontario Place Development pass the sniff test?
    2025/04/18
    On the Ledge – April 17, 2025
    Host: Dave Trafford
    Guests: Kathleen Wynne, Tim Hudak, Keith Leslie, John Wright

    As Canadians look ahead to a long Easter weekend, the On the Ledge panel tackles the aftermath of the French-language leaders’ debate and the political blowback from the Ontario Place Therme spa deal.

    They analyze the debate performances of Carney, Poilievre, Singh, and Blanchet, with particular focus on tone, leadership posture, and policy signals—especially around energy, Indigenous consultation, and economic direction.

    The conversation also pivots to the explosive New York Times investigation exposing questionable claims by Therme Group, and what that means for Doug Ford’s government, Infrastructure Ontario, and the integrity of public procurement. The episode closes on what interprovincial cooperation could mean post-election—and why Indigenous governments must be included in Canada's economic vision.

    Key Takeaways:
    • Debate Highlights: Mark Carney held his own despite weaker French; Poilievre surprised by staying calm and policy-focused; Blanchet was passionate but seen as marginal to national issues.
    • Tone Matters: Multiple panelists noted voters often respond more to a leader’s demeanor than to their words—Carney’s composure and Poilievre’s restraint were seen as net positives.
    • Therme Scandal Fallout: The New York Times revealed Therme misrepresented itself, shaking trust in the Ontario Place redevelopment deal. The panel criticized both the lack of due diligence and media/political inaction before the exposé.
    • Infrastructure Ontario Critique: IO’s role in multiple procurement debacles—including Metrolinx and Ontario Place—came under fire, with calls for greater transparency and accountability.
    • Permitting and Speed vs. Process: Ford’s push to streamline permits is seen as a risk to environmental and Indigenous processes if not balanced carefully.
    • Post-Election Unity Challenge: The panel underscores the need for intergovernmental cooperation on economic priorities—labor mobility, trade, and Indigenous partnerships top the list.
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    56 分
  • Poilievre’s Pivot and the Polling Mirage - Inside Canada’s Election Pulse

    Poilievre’s Pivot and the Polling Mirage - Inside Canada’s Election Pulse
    2025/04/11
    It must be Thursday! We're dealing with another round of tariff chaos courtesy of the Useful Idiot.

    On the Ledge : April 10, 2025
    Host: Dave Trafford
    Guests: Kathleen Wynne, Keith Leslie, John Wright, Tim Hudak

    In this wide-ranging episode of On the Ledge, Dave Trafford and the panel dig into the volatile tariff landscape shaped by U.S. trade moves, its ripple effects on Canada, and how political leaders are responding.

    Broadcasting from Iqaluit, Trafford also introduces a new Arctic-focused podcast, The Arctic Edge.

    Meanwhile, the group dissects Pierre Poilievre’s recent tone shift, internal campaign strategies, and what polling trends really say about the state of play heading into the federal election. From trade chaos to campaign calculus, it’s a comprehensive snapshot of Canada’s political pulse.
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    52 分
  • Trump's Tariffs Hit Ontario and Quebec harder than the rest of Canada

    Trump's Tariffs Hit Ontario and Quebec harder than the rest of Canada
    2025/04/04
    In this episode of On the Ledge - your Ontario Politics Podcast:

    Dave Trafford leads a dynamic roundtable with political veterans Tim Hudak, Keith Leslie, and John Wright, unpacking the seismic shifts in North American trade following Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement. From the economic aftershocks of “Liberation Day” to the potential realignment of Canadian politics, the panel delivers sharp, insightful analysis. The discussion touches on the targeted impacts of tariffs on Ontario and Quebec, federal political fallout, and the public’s mounting anxiety over affordability. The crew also examines campaign strategy pivots, polling signals, and the role of tone and leadership in a turbulent election cycle.

    📌 Key Takeaways:
    • Economic Fallout: Trump’s tariffs have already begun to shutter Canadian manufacturing (e.g., Stellantis plants), with the stock market in decline and global supply chains in disarray.
    • Canadian Response: PM Carney and premiers are weighing cautious retaliation. Ford is praised for a strategic, measured approach.
    • Targeted Impact: Tariffs disproportionately hit Ontario and Quebec, sparking regional tensions over national strategy.
    • Political Shift: Carney’s poll numbers are up, but Conservatives under Poilievre show grassroots strength. Affordability, not Trump, is the campaign’s core issue.
    • Campaign Strategy: Conservative tone has shifted. The panel suggests the “adult in the room” narrative and emotional tone could determine voter swing.
    • Electoral Math: Conservative success hinges on NDP vote splits—now at risk with NDP polling near single digits.
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    57 分