Joe Biden's Commutation of Federal Death Sentences. President Biden's continued opposition to the death penalty and the political considerations surrounding his clemency actions.

Concerns About the Mental Fitness of Political Leaders. The increasing scrutiny of the mental and physical capabilities of political leaders, particularly older ones, and the challenges of addressing this issue.

Republican Party Dysfunction and Trump's Leadership. The infighting within the Republican party, particularly around leadership and policy, and Trump's impulsive decision-making.

Donald Trump's Geopolitical Ambitions. Trump's desire to change the world map, seemingly through impulsive and unrealistic plans, and the likelihood that these ideas are not going to be implemented.

Trump's Continued Grifting. Trump's ongoing efforts to monetize his brand and presidency and the implications of this.

The Matt Gaetz Ethics Report. The House Ethics Committee's scathing report on Rep. Matt Gaetz's behavior.

House Battle Aftermath: Winners and Losers:

Elon Musk as a Kingmaker: Musk demonstrated significant political influence by effectively killing a bipartisan spending bill through public criticism, without holding public office. Co-president Elon Musk demonstrated his political muscle

Political Divisions and Weakened Leadership: Speaker Mike Johnson emerges as a clear loser, portrayed as weak and unable to control his caucus.

Lara Trump's Senate Bid: Failed Ambition: Lara Trump's decision not to seek a Senate seat in Florida is depicted as a result of not having the support of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Arizona Legal Case: Fake Elector Scheme: The Arizona fake electors case is progressing

Judicial Appointments: Biden's Success: President Biden has appointed more judges than Trump did in his first term.

Ambassador to the Vatican: Trump’s appointment of Brian Burch, a critic of Pope Francis,

Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski: Unqualified Nomination: Kristi Noem's nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is questioned, she is totally unqualified and about which she knows nothing. She's being advised by Lewandowski.

Political Landscape

Government Funding & Budget Deal: A temporary funding bill was passed to avoid a major government shutdown, funding the government at current levels through March 14 of next year.

Musk's Role and Influence Co-President-elect Musk tweeted approval of the final budget deal, saying "The Speaker did a good job here, given the circumstances. It went from a bill that weighed pounds to a bill that weighed ounces."

Musk also came under criticism for endorsing a German political party that panders to neo-Nazis.

The need to address the federal budget again by March 14 sets up another potential political clash.

Economic Landscape

One-year inflation expectations jumped to 2.9%, the highest in six months.

Rising inflation expectations may reinforce rate worries and negatively affect rate-sensitive stocks.

• Government Shutdown & Political Chaos

Musk's Influence: Trump's Diminished Power: Speaker Johnson's Predicament: Failed Plan B:

Democratic Resistance: Potential Leadership Change: Musk as Speaker?

• Fani Willis' Legal Challenges

Court Ruling: A Georgia appeals court ruled that Fani Willis must be removed from the case against Donald Trump due to a romantic relationship with an underling. "Yesterday, however, the futzing came to an end, as the all-Republican-appointed 3-person panel ruled 2-1 that Willis has to get off the case."

• NRA's Decline

Financial Woes: The NRA is facing a severe financial crisis due to legal expenses, decreased industry funding, and declining membership, liquidating assets to cover debt. "It had $72 million in stocks and bonds and the like at the end of 2023, and by the end of this year, that will be down to $25 million or so."

• Montana Climate Victory

Constitutional Mandate: The Montana Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling stating that the state's constitutional right to a "clean and healthful environment" includes a stable climate system.

1. Government Shutdown Threat & the Rise of Elon Musk's Influence:

Crisis Trigger: A government shutdown is imminent due to a failure to pass a stopgap spending bill. A planned "kick the can down the road" measure until March was derailed at the last minute.

Musk's Intervention: Elon Musk, along with Vivek Ramaswamy (co-leaders of a "DOGE pseudo-department"), actively campaigned against the bill on eX-Twitter, using a barrage of tweets and misinformation.

2. Matt Gaetz Ethics Investigation and Defense:

Ethics Report Release: The House Ethics Committee, reversing a previous decision, is set to release a report on Matt Gaetz.

3. Presidential Approval Ratings and Future Outlook:

Low Approval Club: Joe Biden's approval rating is currently at 34%, a figure similar to those of Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump at the end of their presidencies.

4. Democratic Presidential Candidates for 2028

5. Legal Matters: Media Defense Fund and State Overreach

1. Trump's Weaponization of Lawsuits:Trump's lawsuit against The Des Moines Register and pollster Ann Selzer for publishing a poll predicting a Kamala Harris win in Iowa is a prime example.
2. Congressional Budget Battles and the "Christmas Tree" Bill:The Continuing Resolution (CR) bill, intended to simply extend government funding, has become a "Christmas tree" of unrelated spending items due to the need to secure Democratic votes. These included "shiny little ornaments" like disaster relief ($100B), farm aid ($10B) and rebuilding the Francis Scott Key Bridge ($2B).
3. "Fake Electors" and the Question of Republican Integrity:Thirteen of the 538 presidential electors in 2024 were "fake electors" from 2020. These individuals were party activists in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania who were charged in some cases (Michigan, Nevada).
4. Trump's Popularity and the 2028 Question:Steve Bannon suggested that Trump could run again in 2028 because the 22nd Amendment only bans three consecutive terms. He spoke at the NY Young Republican Club gala to a enthusiastic crowd.
5. Unintended Consequences of Trump's Policies:potential blowback such as tariffs increasing gas prices, deportations disrupting the meatpacking industry and driving up meat costs, cuts to Medicaid impacting rural hospitals, and school choice plans impacting rural schools.
6. Biden's Efforts to Protect the Affordable Care Act (ACA):Biden extended the signup deadline for the ACA to get more people signed up.
7. Disturbing Acceptance of Political Violence

• The influence of former presidents: Both Trump and Pelosi exert significant control over current politics
• The unpredictable nature of the Republican party: This was demonstrated by the push for RFK Jr., the potential support for Moskowitz, and the actions of Sen. Spartz.
• The limitations and potential abuses of executive power.
• The future directions of key political figures as demonstrated by Manchin and Sinema, as well as Kamala Harris.

• Trump's Authoritarian Grip: Trump's tactics in silencing media criticism and curtailing citizen rights, particularly targeting undocumented immigrants and their US-born children.
• Republican Dominance and Policy Agenda: the widespread Republican control at the state level and their aggressive conservative agenda, focusing on issues like education, gun control, abortion, and transgender rights.
• Democratic Strategies and Challenges: proposed Democratic approaches to counter Trump's populism, including focusing on economic hardships and corporate greed, but acknowledges the difficulties in mobilizing a disillusioned base.
• Erosion of Democratic Processes: concerns about ongoing efforts to restrict voting rights, driven by organizations like the Election Integrity Network, and the potential for further manipulation of electoral systems.