The most significant event reported is Donald Trump's order to destroy Iran's Uranium enrichment sites at Fordo (Fordow), Natanz, and Isfahan, carried out by B2 bombers delivering GBU-57 "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" (MOP) bombs. The long-term political impact and Iran's retaliation methods remain unknown.

NATO leaders are meeting to address challenges, primarily preventing Trump from undermining the alliance. Increased European defense spending, if not offset by new taxes, will require cutting social spending. To mitigate public discontent, much of the new defense budget will be spent in Europe.

Trump's Mistrust of DNI Tulsi Gabbard. Trump is increasingly consulting with CIA Director John Ratcliffe, an "intelligence professional" and former DNI under Trump v1.0, suggesting a bypass of Gabbard.

Struggles with Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" Speaker Mike Johnson's goal of passing Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" by July 4th appears unlikely due to several legislative hurdles.

The Democratic Party primary for New York City mayor is described as a "complicated, unpredictable race" with a weak field of candidates and the potential for ranked-choice voting to be decisive.

ICE's Office of the Principal Legal Advisor is moving to dismiss asylum cases for individuals who presented themselves at ports of entry and requested asylum. This "trick" allows ICE to then place them in "expedited removal (ER)," a "fast-track to deportation" with "few rights." Unless individuals know to oppose the dismissal or request a "credible fear interview," they face quick deportation. This new behavior targets "people who entered the United States the 'right' way," contradicting promises from Trump and his supporters that they would not target such individuals.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has "indicated he does not plan to" override the parliamentarian’s ruling. Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough has ruled against several "key pieces of the massive bill to implement President Trump’s agenda" because they violate the Byrd Rule. This rule prevents "extraneous" provisions from being included in budget reconciliation bills

A provision to cap CFPB funding, cutting "$6.4 billion from the agency by reducing its maximum funding to zero percent of the Federal Reserve’s operating expenses," was disallowed

Cuts of "$1.4 billion in costs by reducing the pay of Federal Reserve staff" and "$293 million by reducing the Office of Financial Research funding" were rejected.

A provision "eliminating the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board," worth "$771 million," was also struck.

Repeals of "funding authorizations in the Inflation Reduction Act" and the "Environmental Protection Agency’s multipollutant emissions standards for light-duty and medium-duty vehicles for model years 2027 and later" were ruled out.

A provision to "reduce appropriations to the Department of Defense if spending plans are not submitted on time" was disallowed.

Significant layoffs in federal government employment and related private consulting firms under the Trump administration's cost-cutting measures are "flooding a shrinking labor market," leading to a challenging job environment for those affected.

The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, prompting discussions about potential direct US military involvement and a renewed diplomatic push for a nuclear deal.

Newly elected DNC Chair Ken Martin's tenure has been plagued by severe internal infighting, raising concerns about his leadership, the party's unity, and its ability to effectively counter Donald Trump after significant electoral losses in 2024.

Senate Republicans are largely dismissing mounting warnings from economists and nonpartisan budget scorekeepers, including the CBO, that their proposed "sprawling border, energy and tax package" (megabill) would add trillions to the national debt, relying instead on White House estimates that predict significantly higher economic growth.

The long-term financial health of Social Security and Medicare has deteriorated, accelerating their respective "funding cliffs" to 2034 and 2033, primarily due to expanded benefits, lower fertility rates, revised economic projections, and higher anticipated expenditures.

The Trump administration has implemented significant tariff increases, with the "average effective tariff rate... more than 15%." This is the "highest tariff rate since the late 1930s Great Depression era." These tariffs are "contributed to stagflation, a deceleration in economic growth, and an expected acceleration in inflation."

Labor Market Dynamics

Consumer and Business Confidence Declines

Fiscal Pressures and Debt Concerns. Mounting Deficit and Debt: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aims to reduce annual deficits to 3% of GDP, but the House reconciliation bill (the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act") is estimated by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) to "boost deficits to about 7% of GDP" through 2034.

CBO Reliability and Political Attacks: There have been concerted efforts by some Republicans to discredit the CBO, claiming it cannot be trusted or is biased.

The first half of 2025 has been "choppy for stocks," with the S&P 500 experiencing a 21.4% drop into bear market territory from mid-February to early-April, followed by a "jarring" rebound.

The market is likely exiting the "Great Moderation" era (positive correlation between bond yields and stock prices) and entering a "Temperamental Era" (more volatile inflation, negative correlation).

A recent "extreme pessimism" reading from the Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll (CSP) in early April set up a "near-perfect background conditions for the market to reverse course in the face of a positive catalyst."

Legislative Challenges: The "Megabill" (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) Internal Republican Pushback: Key Policy Conflicts and Sticking Points:

Republicans hope to meet a self-imposed July Fourth deadline for clearing the bill for President Trump’s signature.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, while not directly involving the U.S. (yet), carries significant political and economic ramifications for the United States:

Restoration of Voice of America's Farsi Service

Trump's Court Victories and Losses. Mahmoud Khalil Detention: A federal judge initially ruled for the release of pro-Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil, Executive Orders on Elections Struck Down: Two federal judges (Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly and Judge Denise Casper) struck down parts of Trump's executive order on elections, affirming that "the states run elections

Trump's approach to immigration reveals a disconnect between public perception of his goals and his actual policies

Donald Trump's financial disclosures highlight the immense profits he is making while in office:

Trump's legal battle with E. Jean Carroll persists:

Peaceful Protests, Isolated Incident: While "thousands of No Kings rallies all over the country on Saturday" were "peaceful," one incident occurred in Salt Lake City.

The NY-17 congressional district is experiencing an unusually early and intense campaign:

D+1 District: The "D+1 district currently represented by Rep. Mike Lawless (R-NY)" is seen by Democrats as a target.

Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg is financially supporting Andrew Cuomo's mayoral bid:

Two new international polls indicate a significant decline in the U.S.'s global standing, particularly under a Republican administration:

Soros-Abedin Wedding: A Democratic Power Gathering

Los Angeles Protests: Information Control, Disinformation, and Political Motivations. Events like riots and battles are inherently difficult to understand in real-time or even with hindsight due to decentralization, chaos, and emotional responses. The Watts Riots of 1965 are used as an example, where basic facts like "Who threw the first punch?" remain unknown. ICE agents rammed a car, used tear gas, and arrested a Latino man, then "fled the scene so quickly," raises questions about procedure and legality. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's press conference saw Senator Alex Padilla "manhandled by federal agents on the scene, up to and including being handcuffed." Real vs. Fake Evidence: Eyewitness Accounts:

Military Parade: The upcoming military parade on June 14, ostensibly for the 250th birthday of the U.S. Army (though the actual date is in 2034, making the current date appear politically motivated), is presented as part of Trump's desire for "military pageantry." The Founding Fathers were "very leery of military power" and "really, really disapproved of military parades."

Iran Nuclear Deal: The administration's approach to Iran is highlighted as a significant failure. Trump "tore up the nuclear deal that Barack Obama reached with Iran" and "then (characteristically) claimed that coming up with a superior agreement would be as easy as pie, has failed miserably." While Trump's first term saw "no major foreign policy crises," the source notes this could be due to luck or others' caution, rather than his strategic success. The current situation in Israel-Iran and Russia-Ukraine could "explode into something very, very bad," which "is going to be on Trump."

Sly Stone and Brian Wilson: Giants of the 1960s. Both died at age 82 this week, recognized as "giants"

President Trump's attendance at "Les Misérables" was marked by significant public disapproval. Despite some muted cheers, the event was largely a "disaster on all counts."

Protests against Donald Trump's immigration policies, initially focused in California, have now spread nationwide, with demonstrations occurring in at least 17 cities. The deployment of Marines to California is seen as a key catalyst for the protests' spread, The current situation is explicitly compared to the 1969 People's Park protests in Berkeley, where then-Gov. Ronald Reagan deployed 2,700 National Guard troops

Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) has deployed the National Guard in Texas to suppress protests, specifically mentioning peaceful demonstrations in San Antonio and ongoing protests in Austin

Hegseth's Senate hearing was described as "pretty poorly," with senators finding him "clearly in over his head." Hegseth consistently refused to answer key questions, such as which side he wanted to win the war in Ukraine, Budget and Readiness Concerns, Lack of Transparency, Insider Trading Allegations

House Republicans are warning Senate Leader John Thune (R-SD) against "budget gimmicks" in the reconciliation bill. The expiration of the 2017 tax cuts next year complicates the baseline.

Military Base Renaming Controversy

Challenges to Government Authority and Accountability

CFPB Under Attack: Republicans are attempting to defund the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) by changing its funding mechanism in the reconciliation bill from "up to a maximum of 12% of the Fed's operating budget" to "0%." Parliamentarian as a Check: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) plans to challenge this provision with the Senate Parliamentarian, who could rule it impermissible in a reconciliation bill, thereby saving the CFPB.

The "Battle of Los Angeles" and its Political Ramifications. The ongoing clashes in Los Angeles are a dominant news story, characterized by their manufactured nature and political exploitation by the Trump administration. Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and California AG Rob Bonta's request for an emergency injunction against federal troop deployment was denied. Most Republican senators support Trump's actions.

Nationwide Anti-ICE Protests

The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) and U.S. Fiscal Health. The OBBBA is expected to cause "Huge Near-Term Deficit Hikes over Current Law," with significant net revenue loss and net outlay cuts leading to a substantial net effect on the deficit.

If budget changes are permanent (i.e., "Absent Sunsetting"), the "Deficit Hikes are Huge in All Years," suggesting temporary or illusory spending cuts and revenue increases.

Projected deficits are anticipated to be "8% of GDP Full-Employment Deficits," indicating a significant structural imbalance.

While "Tariffs will Narrow the Deficits," it will be "just by a Bit," with projected deficits remaining high even with tariff revenue.

The "Net Interest Burden Expected to Rise Steeply," with the CBO projecting net interest outlays as a share of GDP to increase from 3.1% to 4.1% between 2024 and 2035.

CBO's interest rate projections (10-Year Treasury, 3-Month Treasury, and Federal Funds Rate) are questioned as potentially "Too Good to be True?" given the rising debt.

Demographic Trends and Their Implications

New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary

Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) is resigning from Congress for the second time. Green's departure will reduce the Republican majority to 219-212, leaving Speaker Mike Johnson with a "three-vote margin of error" if all members vote and Democrats stick together.