Marijn Bolhuis is an economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF’s research department. In Marijn’s first appearance on the podcast he discusses his new paper, which introduces the idea of a fiscal r-star, and expands on another paper which helps economists understand why consumer sentiment is so depressed, despite relatively low unemployment and inflation coming back to target.

Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links.

Follow David on X: @DavidBeckworth

Follow Marijn on X: @MA_Bolhuis

Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:38) – Marijn Bolhuis’ Career Path

(00:06:02) – Fiscal R-Star

(00:45:30) – Cost of Money and Consumer Sentiment

(00:51:43) – Outro

David Beckworth and producer Sam Alburger dive into the last year of Macro Musings. They pick their favorite episodes, discuss how the year 2024 will be remembered in the macroeconomic history, highlight stories about the making of the show, combine David’s love for basketball and economics, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links.

Follow David on X: @DavidBeckworth

Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:18) – Year in Review

(00:11:48) – New Macro Musings Content

(00:15:13) – NGDP Level Targeting vs. FAIT

(00:18:43) – Preparing for Macro Musings Interviews

(00:24:23) – Macro Musings and AI

(00:26:17) – Looking Back at 2024 in Macroeconomic History

(00:30:27) – Combing David’s Love for Economics and Basketball

(00:34:34) – Thank You’s

(01:00:13) – Outro

Joey Politano is an economist and a commentator who writes a popular Substack newsletter on economics. Joey is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins David to talk about the AI investment boom and broader economic growth trends. Specifically, David and Joey also discuss generational differences in economic perspectives, the increased demand for nuclear energy, the importance of AI in driving scientific research, and much more.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Joey’s X: @JosephPolitano

Joey’s Bluesky: @josephpolitano.bsky.social

Joey’s Substack

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*The AI Investment Boom* by Joey Politano

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:03:09) – The Competition Between X and Bluesky

(00:10:55) – The Generational Differences in Economic Perspectives

(00:16:23) – Breaking Down the AI Investment Boom

(00:23:55) – Have We Left Behind the World of Secular Stagnation?

(00:27:47) – Did ChatGPT Kickstart the Next Chapter of Growth?

(00:34:35) – AI and Increased Demand for Nuclear Energy

(00:39:45) – The Importance of AI in Driving Scientific Research and Growth

(00:44:34) – The Current State of Economic Growth

(00:53:40) – Outro

Jeffrey Lacker is a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he served as its president from 2004 to 2017. Jeff is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the history of the Federal Reserve’s credit policy, as well as a recent Shadow Open Market Committee conference.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Jeffrey’s website

Jeffrey’s Mercatus profile

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* — A conference hosted by the Hoover Institution

*From the “Lender of Last Resort” to “Too Big to Fail” to “Financial System Savior”: Federal Reserve Credit Policy and the Shadow Open Market Committee* by Jeffrey Lacker

*Last Resort Lending: Classical Thought vs. Modern Federal Reserve Practice* by Jeffrey Lacker

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:47) – The Shadow Open Market Committee and its Contributions Throughout Time

(00:05:32) – Highlights from the Recent Shadow Open Market Committee Conference

(00:10:17) – From FAIT Back to FIT?

(00:14:07) – *Federal Reserve Credit Policy and the Shadow Open Market Committee*: Motivation and Summary

(00:16:05) – Breaking Down the Difference Between Credit Policy and Monetary Policy

(00:22:10) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: The Monetary Stability Doctrine

(00:28:56) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: The Real Bills Doctrine

(00:34:49) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: Warburg’s Mercantilism

(00:39:11) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: Too-big-to-fail and the Reluctant Samaritan

(00:47:45) – Solutions for Improving the System Moving Forward

(00:55:25) – Outro

Zachary Mazlish is an economist at the University of Oxford, and he joins David on Macro Musings to explain some recent and important macroeconomic developments, specifically the inflation linkages to the 2024 presidential election and the macroeconomic implications of transformative AI. David and Zach also discuss transformative AI’s impact on asset pricing, optimal monetary policy in world of high growth, the causes of the slowdown in trend productivity, and more.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Zach’s Twitter: @ZMazlish

Zach’s Substack

Zach’s website

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*Yes, Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer* by Zachary Mazlish

*Transformative AI, Existential Risk, and Real Interest Rates* by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and Zachary Mazlish

*Decomposing the Great Stagnation: Baumol’s Cost Disease vs. “Ideas Are Getting Hard to Find”* by Basil Halperin and Zachary Mazlish

*The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market* by David Autor, Arin Dube, and Annie McGrew

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:04:03) – Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer: Comparing Periods of Wage Growth

(00:15:26) – Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer: The Median Change in the Wage

(00:22:19) – Assessing the Feedback to Zachary’s Article

(00:25:05) – The Significance of Transformative AI and its Double-Edged Sword

(00:27:02) – The Impact of Transformative AI on Asset Pricing and its Policy Challenges

(00:38:07) – The Broader Macroeconomic Effects of Rapid Growth

(00:41:05) – Optimal Monetary Policy in a World of High Growth

(00:43:19) – Exploring the Causes of the Productivity Slowdown

(00:49:21) – Outro

Ellen Correia Golay is an advisor in the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, focusing on the US Treasury market. She also helped lead an interagency working group report and a recent conference on the Treasury market. Ellen joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these and other Treasury-related developments. Ellen and David also discuss her career journey and role at the New York Fed, the current and future challenges in the Treasury Market, necessary areas for reform, and more.

DISCLAIMER: Ellen Correia Golay’s views are her own, and they do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.

Ellen’s LinkedIn profile

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*Enhancing the Resilience of the U.S. Treasury Market: 2024 Staff Progress Report* by the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance (IAWG)

*The 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference* — An event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:03:09) – Ellen’s Career Journey and Role at the New York Fed

(00:17:13) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market

(00:20:38) – Current and Future Challenges in the Treasury Market

(00:29:54) – How Would Central Clearing Impact the Fed and the Treasury Market?

(00:31:47) – Explaining the Treasury Department Buyback Program

(00:36:12) – Commencement of Data Dissemination on Individual Nominal Coupon Treasury Transactions

(00:38:29) – Requiring the Reporting of Non-Centrally Cleared Bilateral Repos

(00:41:26) – The 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference

(00:43:50) – Future Areas for Reform in the Treasury Market

(00:46:43) – Outro