In this episode of Industry Relations, Rob and Greg navigate the fallout from key legal decisions and the broader implications for the real estate industry. They analyze the Supreme Court’s denial of NAR’s cert petition, its potential effects on DOJ actions, and how shifting dynamics—such as commission lawsuits and housing market pressures—might reshape the landscape. The conversation also previews upcoming events and industry challenges that will define the next chapter of real estate.

Key Takeaways

• Supreme Court Denies NAR’s Petition: What this decision means for DOJ’s antitrust investigations and future legal battles.

• Commission Lawsuits Continue: Why the litigation isn’t over and what could come next, including potential first-time homebuyer class actions.

• DOJ’s Goals: Rob and Greg speculate on what the Department of Justice ultimately wants for the real estate industry, including reducing transaction fees.

• Housing Market Pressures: Rising costs, insurance challenges, and inventory shifts, including their impact on rentals and sales.

• Upcoming Events: The MLS Reset Conference and the first-ever Industry Relations live stream scheduled for February 7th.

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In this thought-provoking episode of Industry Relations, Rob and Greg explore the seismic changes shaking up the real estate world as Phoenix Realtors challenge the NAR three-way agreement. They delve into the implications of member-driven value propositions, whether NAR can reinvent itself, and the ongoing debate over what truly inspires and retains Realtor memberships. The conversation is a deep dive into the challenges and opportunities ahead for the industry.

Key Takeaways

• Phoenix Realtors’ Bold Move: The Phoenix Association’s MLS Choice Program creates a potential watershed moment, questioning the viability of NAR’s three-way agreement.

• Membership Value Propositions: Rob and Greg discuss the importance of offering concrete benefits to agents versus relying solely on advocacy or inspiration.

• NAR’s Leadership Challenge: Speculation on whether high-profile leadership, such as a celebrity figure, could transform NAR’s narrative and mission.

• The Future of Realtor Memberships: Exploring voluntary membership models and the need for NAR to rethink its approach to retaining and attracting agents.

• Big Questions for 2025: What does it take for an agent to see NAR membership as a must-have in a post-Phoenix world?

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In this final episode of the year, Rob and Greg deliver their predictions for 2025, exploring how the real estate industry will evolve. They tackle everything from transaction volumes and mortgage rates to the fate of MLSs and the potential unraveling of the three-way agreement. Along the way, they discuss societal trends, like the importance of community and the role associations can play in bringing people together, while reflecting on industry dynamics and the future of key players like Realtor.com and Compass.

Key Takeaways

• Predictions for 2025: Rob and Greg forecast transaction numbers, mortgage rates, home prices, and the biggest M&A moves.

• The Fate of MLSs: Discussion on whether MLSs will remain relevant or adapt to changing times.

• Unraveling the Three-Way Agreement: The potential impact of associations like Phoenix breaking away from NAR.

• The Importance of Community: Inspired by the book Bowling Alone and the documentary Join or Die, they discuss how associations can evolve to foster better connections.

• Major Industry Moves: Speculation on Realtor.com’s next big acquisition and predictions around mergers like Bright MLS and Stellar MLS.

Bowling Alone Book

Join or Die Movie

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In this Industry Relations episode, Rob and Greg reflect on the pivotal events of 2024, dubbing it “The Year of the Settlement.” They analyze the seismic shifts in real estate, including the impact of high-interest rates, low inventory, NAR’s declining influence, and the ripple effects of major lawsuits. The duo also previews what these changes could mean for 2025 and beyond, setting the stage for a new era in real estate.

Key Takeaways

• 2024: A Year of Change: Why the settlement and other industry events signal the dawn of Real Estate 3.0.

• NAR’s Decline: The fallout from scandals and lawsuits has shifted perceptions of NAR as an industry powerhouse.

• Housing Market Woes: High-interest rates and inventory challenges persist, affecting transactions and industry morale.

• The CCP Debate: Controversy surrounding Clear Cooperation Policy continues to evolve, with implications for the future of MLSs.

• Compass’s Moves: The acquisition of @properties and its strategy around private exclusives sparks debate.

Washington Post CCP Article

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In this episode of Industry Relations, Rob and Greg tackle the latest controversies surrounding NAR and the recent investigative article from The New York Times. They debate the role of lobbying, explore accusations of corruption and financial mismanagement, and reflect on the broader challenges facing NAR’s leadership and reputation.

Key Takeaways

• NAR and Lobbying Controversy: Discussion on how NAR funnels money to political groups through entities like the American Property Owners Alliance (APOA).

• The “Woke vs. Conservative” Debate: Examining NAR’s conflicting image as both progressive and a supporter of conservative causes.

• Transparency Issues: Why NAR’s approach to handling controversies feels “astroturfy” and the need for more open dialogue with members.

• Organizing Homeowners: The untapped potential of grassroots homeowner advocacy and how it could reshape lobbying strategies.

• PR Missteps: Criticism of NAR’s traditional PR playbook and a call for leadership to adopt more authentic communication strategies.

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Overview

In this special episode of Industry Relations, Rob and Greg welcome economist and author Professor Bryan Caplan to discuss his latest book, Build Baby Build: The Science and Ethics of Housing Regulation. The trio dives into the housing crisis, exploring how deregulation could address affordability, inequality, and other societal issues. Bryan’s insights challenge conventional thinking, offering bold solutions for the future of housing.

Key Takeaways

• Core Argument: Bryan argues that excessive housing regulations have driven up costs, stifled innovation, and exacerbated inequality, advocating for widespread deregulation.

• The 50% Reduction Claim: Deregulation could halve housing prices nationwide by enabling construction and reducing bureaucratic hurdles.

• NIMBYism and Local Politics: Local resistance to development, often driven by fear and misinformation, remains a significant barrier to solving the housing crisis.

• Economic and Social Benefits: Lower housing costs could address issues like inequality, mobility, and declining birth rates, while also improving quality of life.

• Role of Realtors: Real estate professionals and associations could play a pivotal role in advocating for deregulation to increase housing supply and affordability.

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Check out Bryan's amazing graphic novel: Build Baby Build: The Science and Ethics of Housing Regulation

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Episode Summary:

In this episode, Rob and Greg tackle the latest developments in the housing market and its broader implications for real estate professionals. From dissecting the DOJ’s recent moves to exploring how transactions and home prices define market strength, the duo brings sharp insights and engaging commentary to these critical topics.

Discussion Highlights:

• DOJ’s Statement of Interest: What it means for buyer agreements and competition in the real estate market.

• Market Metrics Debate: Rob questions whether housing market health should be based on transactions and sales volume rather than just home prices.

• Affordability and Transactions: The ongoing challenges of affordability and declining transaction volumes in shaping the housing landscape.

• Broker Challenges: Navigating regulatory uncertainties and adapting to evolving DOJ scrutiny.

• Future Predictions: Speculating on the DOJ’s next steps and potential impacts on real estate practices.

Key Takeaways:

• The DOJ aims to promote competition, with specific attention on transparency and buyer agreements.

• Home prices and transaction volumes tell different stories about market strength.

• Brokers and agents face significant uncertainty as they adapt to legal and market changes.

• The need for consumer awareness and transparency remains central to the evolving real estate industry.

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Episode Summary:

In this timely episode In this timely episode (recorded Monday, November 25), Rob and Greg dive deep into the DOJ’s recent statement of interest in the Burnett settlement. They break down the key points raised, including the potential antitrust concerns surrounding the requirement for buyers to sign agreements before home tours and the broader implications for real estate brokers and agents.

The discussion highlights:

• The DOJ’s clarification that compliance with the NAR settlement does not shield brokers or agents from future antitrust actions.

• Concerns about how the buyer agreement provision could stifle competition and negatively impact consumers.

• Speculation on the DOJ’s broader strategy and its potential impact on real estate practices, including commissions and agent-broker dynamics.

• The challenges brokers face in navigating conflicting legal and regulatory signals.

Key Takeaways:

• Brokers and agents must carefully navigate the evolving legal landscape, balancing compliance with the settlement and potential DOJ actions.

• The DOJ’s intervention signals its readiness to continue scrutinizing real estate practices, including beyond the terms of the settlement.

• Transparency and adaptability will be critical for real estate professionals moving forward.

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Vendor Alley: DOJ files eleventh hour statement of interest in Sitzer/Burnett Case

Rob’s Substack: A Look at the DOJ's Statement re: NAR Settlement

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This podcast is produced by Sunbound Studios