Slowing demand growth and a battle for market share between Saudi Arabia and the US could see crude oil prices drop significantly by the end of the year.

- High oil prices stimulate more production, low prices less

- Saudi Arabia and the US battle for market share

- Global demand for oil is around 100 million barrels/day

- Electric vehicles (EVs) have destroyed 2 million barrel/day of oil demand

- Globally around 20% of vehicle sales are EVs

- Oil prices could fall to $40-$45/barrel by the end of the year

- Oil demand growth weakest in 16 years

- Low oil price is double-edged sword for chemical markets

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

As the existing global trading system crumbles, and overcapacity keeps growing, Europe’s chemical industry must move back to a more national or regional business model.

- Trade war shows global trading system is breaking down

- Chemical industry could move back to a national or regional business model

- Would be a return to pre-1990s industry structure

- Europe has smaller chemical plants, ideal for regional markets

- EU must now act fast to protect chemical and industrial value chains

- China chemicals has been based on 6-8% GDP growth per year

- Now real GDP growth is only 1-4%, according to unofficial estimates

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

With H1 2025 already in the rear-view mirror, and the summer heatwave upon us once again, the acetone and phenol, and derivative markets, continue to be blighted by difficulties.

Demand, pretty much across the board in this value chain as well as for many other products, remains stubbornly weak.

Supply is ample in most cases as well, leading to stagnant markets, sluggish spot activity, and contracts doing the majority of the heavy lifting in the markets.

In this podcast, Europe ICIS editors Jane Gibson (acetone and phenol), Heidi Finch (bisphenol A and epoxy resins), Sam Lovatt (polycarbonate), Mathew Jolin-Beech (methyl methacrylate) and ICIS senior analyst Michele Bossi (aromatics and derivatives) discuss current market conditions, and look forward to H2 2025.

SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- Trade tensions have been in focus for the wider petrochemical markets since US Liberation Day tariffs were announced. In this podcast, propylene editor Julia Tan speaks with ethylene editor Josh Quah to examine how recent tariff developments have impacted the Asian olefins market.

• Ethylene support collapses with ethane resolution, new downstream demand to cushion drops
• US tariff impact to trickle up from end use sectors
• Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announces propylene futures, beginning 22 July

SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- Asian methanol prices have experienced a lot of volatility over the last few weeks, due to geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. While most production returned to normal in early July, some questions still remain around demand, both in India and the rest of Asia.

• Production in Iran, southeast Asia returns to normal
• US tariffs, seasonal factors to affect demand from downstream applications
• MTO run rates in China may be adjusted in July, margins may narrow

In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Doris He and Damini Dabholkar discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.

European politicians must decide if they want to save the region’s chemical industry as the wave of energy-intensive closures continues.

- Dow to close cracker at Bohlen, Germany plus two other sites with loss of 800 jobs

- More than 5 million tonnes/year of ethylene capacity now under threat in Europe

- Industry still faces high energy costs, regulatory burdens, unfair competition

- China will continue to add capacity at least to 2030

- China chemical plants running at higher-than-expected operating rates

- Importing ethylene and propylene can be expensive

- Political support will be vital to save Europe’s chemical industry

- New US tariffs may see two-tier chemical markets emerge in Asia

- Uncertainty and chaos likely to persist

LONDON (ICIS)--As geopolitical tensions have cooled, the chemicals industry did not have time to react to the spike in oil prices, and the seasonal demand drop in Europe could be more severe than the traditional summer lull.

• China polypropylene flooding global market, outpacing domestic demand
• Chemicals industry as leading indicator warns of wider economic ill health
• Shutdown of plants in Europe is massive crisis
• Vietnam 20% tariff from US will weigh on both economies
• Risks of US cutting social security, international relief funding
• Key economies not as strong as presented
• Climate change needs to be a priority for businesses
• CEO beset with challenging conditions
• Working patterns reshaped by climate change
• Stark landscape provides opportunities for innovators to thrive

In this Think Tank podcast, Morgan Condon interviews John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

In this podcast, market editors Zubair Adam (MX) and Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez (PX, OX) showcase the low levels of consumption in Europe.