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Potential US-China Trade Deal 🌐
Despite rising tensions, President Trump hinted at the possibility of a new trade deal with China. This follows his announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which prompted China to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. coal, LNG, oil, machinery, and vehicles. Although China failed to meet its Phase One commitments, Trump remains optimistic about renegotiating terms. 🤝📉

Corn Futures Near $5 💰
The Mar25 corn contract hovers near the $5 mark as option expiration approaches. A large amount of open interest at this strike price may influence market behavior today. Additionally, the Mar25-May25 spread reached record-wide levels, hinting at volatility ahead. 🌽💥

Concerns Over Canadian Tariffs and Fertilizer Costs 💸
Nutrien warns that President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports could raise U.S. farmers' fertilizer costs, particularly for potash, which is mostly sourced from Canada. The price increase could exceed $100 per ton, affecting farmers after the spring planting season. 🌱⚠️

USDA Releases Frozen Funds 💵
The USDA is releasing $20 million in funds for approved contracts under programs like the Environmental Quality Incentive Program and Conservation Stewardship Program. This follows a review prompted by President Trump's executive order freezing funding. More funds are expected to be released soon. 💼🔓

Gold Prices Surge to Record High 🏆
Gold prices reached a new high of $2,954.69 per ounce, driven by fears of a global trade war amid President Trump's tariff plans. Some analysts predict gold could exceed $3,000, though a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal might limit further price increases. 🛑💰

Drought Conditions Improving Slightly 🌾
The USDA’s drought monitor shows slight improvements in drought conditions across the Corn Belt, particularly in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. However, challenges remain in the High Plains and some areas of the Midwest. 🌧️🌾

US Ethanol Production Holds Steady 🔋
Ethanol production was stable last week, with output holding steady compared to last year. Ethanol stocks saw a 2% increase, and gasoline demand showed a slight uptick year-over-year, despite a weekly dip in demand. ⛽📊

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Warm Temperatures in Argentina 🌡️
Argentina's key farming areas are set to experience temperatures as high as 95°F in the coming days. While the heat could stress crops, the Buenos Aires grains exchange forecasts beneficial rainfall early next week, with some areas receiving up to an inch of rain. The soybean crop is estimated at 49.6mmt, and the corn crop at 49mmt. 🌱🌞

Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Reduced 🌾
Agroconsult has revised Brazil's soybean crop estimate to 171.3mmt, down from 172.4mmt in January, mainly due to drought in southern Brazil. However, strong crops in other areas, like Mato Grosso, are expected to offset the losses. Despite the cut, Brazil's soybean crop is still expected to be 10% larger than last season. 🇧🇷🌾

Tensions Between Trump and Zelensky ⚡
Tensions have escalated between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Trump recently labeled Zelensky a dictator and blamed Ukraine for the war with Russia. Zelensky rejected the claims, calling Trump’s statements Russian propaganda. Meanwhile, Russia launched a drone strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing power outages. ⚔️⚡

USDA Mistakenly Fired Bird Flu Response Workers 🦠
The USDA mistakenly laid off several employees working on the bird flu response, including veterinarians and health technicians. These staff members are now being rehired to continue their critical work. The bird flu outbreak has devastated flocks, causing egg prices to hit a record high. 🥚💸

Federal Reserve Maintains Cautious Approach on Rates 💵
The Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates steady for now, awaiting further signs of inflation improvement. While one rate cut is expected this year, concerns remain over inflation, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The current benchmark rate sits at 4.25%-4.5%. 📉

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CME Corn Futures Surge 🚀
CME corn futures hit their best trade since October 2023, with the Mar25 contract breaking the $5 per bushel mark. US export sales remain a key factor, running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, surpassing USDA's projected 7% increase. "The funds" remain active buyers, holding a net long of 360k contracts. Wheat futures also rose, supported by Black Sea headlines and weather concerns in the US and Russia. Soybean futures closed higher as well. 🌽📈

DOGE Evaluates Agricultural Checkoff Programs 💡
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reviewing USDA’s 22 checkoff programs as part of a broader effort to reduce federal spending. This review could potentially lead to restructuring or regular voting by producers on whether these programs should continue. The checkoff programs, designed for marketing, research, and education, have faced criticism over transparency and fairness. 🧐

January Soybean Crush Data Released 📊
NOPA's January soybean crush data showed a slight decline from December’s all-time high but was still the second-largest on record for the month. The crush totaled 200.4 million bushels, up 7.9% from last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to a six-month high of 1.27 billion pounds, though they fell short of trade estimates. 🌱

Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Automobiles, Semiconductors, and Pharmaceuticals 💰
President Trump announced plans to implement 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with an increase over the next year. The specifics are expected by April, but it's unclear whether the tariffs will target specific countries or all imports. This would have significant effects on U.S. vehicle imports, which make up about half of all vehicle sales in the country. 🚗💥

EU to Ban Pesticide-Treated Crop Imports 🚫
The European Union plans to implement a ban on imports of crops treated with pesticides that are prohibited in Europe for health and environmental reasons. This policy could impact U.S. soybean exports, as the EU is a key buyer of U.S. agricultural products. President Trump has expressed concern, suggesting that such restrictions would harm European markets. 🌍🌾

US Corn Shipments Exceed Expectations 📦
US corn shipments for the week ending February 13 totaled 1.6mmt (63 million bushels), up 19% from the prior week and 53% higher than last year. However, soybean and wheat shipments were below expectations, with soybean exports down 34% and wheat shipments down 56%. 🌾🚢