Episode Summary: Global Coffee Market Report — June 8, 2025

This episode offers a concise and professional overview of key developments in the global coffee market as of early June 2025. The discussion begins with Colombia, where the National Federation of Coffee Growers has implemented a guaranteed purchase price linked to the New York Stock Exchange and exchange rate fluctuations. As of June 2, Colombian coffee fetched a premium of $344.45 per pound, with internal prices reaching up to 385,000 COP for dry parchment loads, depending on milling performance and quality metrics.

The Brazilian coffee market remains under bearish pressure, primarily due to a strong robusta harvest in Espírito Santo and a weakened real, contributing to a 5.14% drop in Arabica futures as of May 30. Local market prices have also declined, with Arabica and Robusta varieties seeing respective decreases of 7.3% and 13%. Despite strong international demand, Brazil's expected 2025/26 production may continue to suppress domestic prices.

In Vietnam, coffee export volumes have declined by 5.5% year-over-year through May 2025. However, a 56% increase in export revenue highlights improved global pricing power. Domestic prices are projected to soften due to higher anticipated production—a 6.9% year-on-year increase is expected for the upcoming season.

The European Union’s new deforestation regulations are also influencing trade patterns, designating Brazilian coffee as medium risk and increasing compliance hurdles. Conversely, Vietnam and Kenya, classified as low-risk, may gain smoother access to EU markets, potentially shifting sourcing strategies.

The episode concludes with a broader view on the volatility and complexity of the coffee trade. While production in Brazil and Vietnam remains robust, export volumes from Brazil have fallen, and yet higher per-bag prices are driving revenue growth. Listeners are encouraged to visit the CropGPT website for in-depth data, including historical weather trends, crop health, pricing, and earnings analysis.

In this episode, we explore Ethiopia’s vital role in the global coffee industry — from its historical roots to its modern-day reputation for world-class Arabica. Join us as we break down the numbers, compare global rankings, and unpack what makes Ethiopian coffee so special.

Key Highlights:

• Origin of Arabica: Ethiopia is widely recognized as the birthplace of Coffea arabica.
• Global Ranking:
  • Largest coffee producer in Africa
  • 5th-largest globally in 2023
  • 2023/24 production: 8.35 million 60-kg bags (~501,000 metric tons)
• Comparison with Top Producers:
  • Brazil: 3.4M tons, highly mechanized, 30% of global supply
  • Vietnam: 2.0M tons, mostly Robusta
  • Colombia: 680K tons, premium Arabica from supported smallholders
  • Indonesia: 760K tons, Arabica + Robusta blend
• Arabica Focus:
  • Nearly 100% of Ethiopia’s output is Arabica
  • Among the top 3 Arabica producers globally
• Yields & Productivity:
  • Yields remain low: ~800 kg/ha
  • Lag behind Brazil (1,500–2,400), Vietnam (2,200–2,500), Colombia (1,000–1,200)
  • Constraints include old trees, low input use, disease, and fragmented land
• Growth Trends:
  • Steady 3–4% annual growth (2015–2025)
  • Driven by area expansion, not yield gains
  • World coffee share rose to ~5% by 2023
• Reputation & Quality:
  • Internationally praised for unique cup profiles and flavor diversity
  • Specialty Grade 1 and 2 beans command premium prices
  • Strong position in specialty coffee markets
• Farming Practices:
  • ~95% of production from smallholder farmers
  • Traditional, organic agroforestry systems under shade trees
  • High quality, but low mechanization and economic vulnerability
• Key Challenge: