Carly Brantner is an assistant professor of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics at Duke University and Duke Clinical Research Institute.

• Carly: @carlybrantner.bsky.social
• Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social
• Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social

• Vincent’s “What is your estimand” section in his {marginaleffects} book: https://marginaleffects.com/chapters/challenge.html#sec-goals_estimand
• Article on defining estimands: https://doi.org/10.1177/00031224211004187
• Andrew's marginal effects post: https://www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/05/20/marginalia/
• Andrew's post on “fixed effects” and mariginal effects across different disciplines: https://www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/11/29/conditional-marginal-marginaleffects/

• Andrew: @andrew.heiss.phd
• Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social
• Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social

In this episode Lucy and Ellie dig into a recently publicized paper, "Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid", which has gained attention after being promoted by RFK Jr. as evidence that vaccines cause autism.

Ellie breaks down her Substack critique of the study. Together, she and Lucy discuss the methodological flaws and what a better version of this study might look like.

• Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid: https://publichealthpolicyjournal.com/vaccination-and-neurodevelopmental-disorders-a-study-of-nine-year-old-children-enrolled-in-medicaid/
• RFK Jr is promoting a new study claiming "vaccines cause autism" but it doesn't add up. Literally [Ellie's substack]: https://epiellie.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-is-promoting-a-new-study-claiming

Follow along on Bluesky:

• Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social
• Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.