Derek Moore examines markets around historical geopolitical events. Plus, the 2020s are trending to be the most volatile decade and by the way we are up over 80% so far. Then, looking at the pop in gold and crude oil this week and perspective on where those markets are. Plus, a contrarian take that housing is actually cheap. Later talking semiconductor stocks, the US dollar index, inflation, and useless sentiment surveys.

1-year forward inflation expectations U-Michigan survey

Sentiment gets better

Gold breaks out of its most recent range while crude oil breaks back into its prior range

US Dollar bearishness is the prevailing opinion so is it too crowded of a view?

Semiconductors 40%+ off the bottom but still sideways since their all-time high in July 2024

Markets 1-year later after geopolitical events

Will the 2020s have the most 1% +/- days ever?

S&P 500 Index earnings expectations forward 12 months update

Price per square foot US Housing National average

Is housing cheap when considering adjustments for inflation and average square footage?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore looks at how companies in the S&P 500 are not correlated while the equal weighted S&P 500 is correlated closely with the weighted S&P 500 Index. Later, looking at historical rolling 10-year returns in the market and why it’s rare to have periods that are negative over longer time frames. Plus, touching on single stock risk a la Elon Musk, Tesla, and Trump public news hurts Tesla shares. Oh, and we are only 2.4% below the old all-time high.

S&P 500 Index now only 2.4% from a new all-time high

Market Breadth definition and how its narrowing currently

Mag 7 performance dispersion

Elon vs Trump

Rolling 10-year returns in the S&P 500 Index

Single stock risk vs diversified indexes

Mentioned in this Episode

ZEGA Concentrated stock and white paper on Concentrated Stock Hedging https://zegainvestments.com/products/concentrated-stock

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore explains how what sometimes seems obvious isn’t what happens as we can see with inflation numbers that continue to move lower despite consumer sentiment surveys expecting 6.6% inflation in the next year. Plus, NVDA had its earnings and the stock’ forward PE is lower due to the next 12-month analyst estimates being near all-time highs. Plus, sell in May would have been a mistake as markets recovered and are now back to within several percent of all-time highs.

PCE Inflation vs CPI Inflation

NVDA forward PE ratio and earnings EPS estimates

Calendar Spreads vs Diagonal spreads explained

Inflation continues to be lower

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey says 1-year inflation 6.6%

Atlanta FED GDP Now

EconPi

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com