#310: Market Update Apr 25 – Darwin Dominates, Melbourne Signals Growth Ahead, Quartile Price Movements & Expected Rate Cuts Fuel Confidence
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#310: Market Update Apr 25 – Darwin Dominates, Melbourne Signals Growth Ahead, Quartile Price Movements & Expected Rate Cuts Fuel Confidence
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This week, Dave, Mike and Cate tackle the data! Nationally, the gains could be described as "soft", but for Darwin and Hobart, things are anything but soft. With a second consecutive strong month, Darwin is once again the star of the show.
Dave considers that Darwin is in the early stages of a bull run based on a few metrics. Time on market, sales volumes, vacancy rates, rental movement, and new listings and are all combining to suggest that Darwin's demand level has more in store.
Cate points out that the combined regions are still doing a lot of heavy lifting though. Investor price points and lighter negative cashflow is a likely reason for regional performance, combined with intra-state migration. Retirees and the accepted phenomenon of work-from-home are also contributors to this trend, as are decentralised businesses.
Quartile performance across the cities also tells us an interesting story. Typically, cities in recovery show an uptick in higher quartile performance, yet as Cate points out, credit can play havoc with this trend.
Melbourne's lower quartile is still lower, but investor activity could explain this. Investors tend to circle lower price points and Melbourne represents value when contrasted against other states. The higher rental yield has also been compelling for a few investors.
Are buyers sitting on their hands in Canberra? The Trio chat about the impact of elections on buyer behaviours, particularly in cities with high numbers of public servants.
And what does this segmented data suggest for our hot cities of 2024, (Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide)? Tune in to find out.
Rents have almost normalised thanks to higher household formation rates and a slow-down on overseas migration. Most of our capital city house rental movement now sits within the target inflation band; a stark contrast from the heady past three years.
Rents... good news for renters? Many of our capital city markets have experienced a softening in asking rents for houses. Adelaide, Perth, Darwin and Hobart remain the strongest, but we are far from the peak conditions over thee past four years. Household formation rates have impacted rental growth, as have first home buyer initiatives, migration levels and confidence around employment.
As Dave points out though, national rental growth is still above target inflation, so it's not all good news for renters.
for renters. Sales data for Darwin at 35.5% increase over the past twelve months overshadows every other city. Combined with new listings, (which have contracted in our northernmost capital), the supply/demand balance supports Darwin's sheer strength at present.
Total listings data is slightly under the past five year average, but we do need to take into account the impact of Easter, ANZAC Day and the federal election.
Old listings, current listings and new listings tell a great story, particularly for Canberra. The fear of public service cuts would have no doubt dampened the sentiment for Canberran purchasers.
May 2025's Westpac consumer sentiment indices are surprisingly stable, however some of the metrics suggest a degree of pessimism. Buyers are optimistic about the chances of an interest rate cut, yet sentiment is still relatively anaemic.
Dave shares his updated predictions for some of our capital cities as he talks our listeners through some of the combined leading indicators he's combined for a clearer picture. Cate sheds light on settlement periods and the impact a long settlement can have on data reporting. Many upgraders are currently looking to buy on long settlements in order to give themselves ample time to sell.
Lastly, Mike decides to introduce a guessing game for the Trio. "Which capital cities will star next month?"
Let's see who's predictions land closest to the pin next month!
Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/05/19/ep-310-april-2025-market-update/